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Bitcoin: Pay Me Now or Pay Me Later?
The March bottom for Bitcoin was maintained at $19597, and a breakthrough above $29K can now aim for $37-39K.
We posed the issue of whether Bitcoin (BTC) could achieve new highs two weeks ago, as seen here, and discovered, "As long as... We continue to regard BTC as intermediate- to long-term bullish if $19597 persists, also known as the floor.
Even though you might have believed we were insane, BTC is currently selling in the $28K range and has gained another 16% since. Thus, we are still of the "intermediate- to long-term Bullish" opinion.
We did not receive an optimal (62-50%) return to $21230-23050, which is a minor flaw. BTC, however, stagnated at $23950, just a 38% recovery. Shallower than anticipated, but market behavior need not conform to perfect trends. Additionally, a shorter decline indicates increased purchasing pressure.
That is optimistic. Thus, we are left with a possible setting that is rather bullish. Look at Figure 1.
A stacked collection of first and second waves is how the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) refers to the tally above. It denotes that the green W-3, 4, 5, etc. pattern begins with a breakthrough above the high point of March 22 at $28877. However, before Bitcoin can move higher, a breach of Monday's bottom at $26565 offers up a deeper retreat.
The bullish resolution is still in effect; $26565 now needs to hold
In other words, if prices fall below Monday's low, last week's high was the peak of a more prolonged red W-i, and the subsequent drop will be red W-ii, with a goal range of $25–25.5K before red W-iii takes hold.
Similar to two weeks ago, we continue to regard BTC as intermediate- to long-term bullish as long as $19597, or the bottom, persists. Until demonstrated otherwise, a move downward will continue to represent a low-risk, high-reward position. As a result, the advantages of our EW-based foreknowledge remain to be enjoyed by our elite users.
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