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Market News Below 1.0750, EUR/USD Trades with a Negative Bias, Awaiting German Inflation Data

Below 1.0750, EUR/USD Trades with a Negative Bias, Awaiting German Inflation Data

The EUR/USD pair maintains its defensive stance near 1.0728 in the early Asian session on Friday. The US PPI increased 0.2% month-over-month in March, surpassing the 0.3% forecast; the annual PPI surged 2.1%, the largest increase since April 2023. As anticipated, the ECB maintained its primary interest rate at 4.0% at its fifth consecutive meeting on Thursday.

TOP1 Markets Analyst

2024-04-12

10380

The EUR/USD pair trades near 1.0728 on Friday during the early Asian session with a negative bias. The major pair is weighed down by the modest recovery of the US Dollar (USD) in the wake of growing speculation of a September Fed rate cut. As anticipated, the European Central Bank (ECB) maintained interest rates at a record high on Thursday and left the door open for a rate cut in June. Investors are awaited on Friday for the preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment and the German March Inflation Data.

In March, a wholesale inflation rate in the United States unexpectedly declined, bolstering expectations for a reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. In March, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.2% month-over-month, surpassing the 0.3% forecast. The PPI increased 2.1% year-over-year during the same period, its largest annual increase since April 2023. In addition, the Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 2.4% year-over-year on Thursday, exceeding market expectations, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The market was minimally affected by the report. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors are currently pricing in only two rate decreases for this year, which will most likely commence in September. The FOMC minutes, which were made public on Wednesday, revealed that members expressed skepticism regarding the elevated level of inflation and that recent data had not bolstered their belief that inflation was declining in a sustainable manner to 2%.

Thursday, the ECB maintained its key interest rate target at 4.0% for the fifth consecutive meeting across the Atlantic. Despite ambiguity surrounding the Federal Reserve's future actions, the central bank also alluded to an imminent reduction in interest rates. LSEG data indicates that the markets have factored in a 25 basis point (bps) reduction in interest rates by the ECB in June. The increasing supposition that the ECB would reduce its interest rate prior to the US Federal Reserve puts selling pressure on the Euro (EUR) and provides the EUR/USD pair with a tailwind.