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Market News Bears in EUR / USD Have Taken Out Significant Lows, Falling Below 1.0570 So Far

Bears in EUR / USD Have Taken Out Significant Lows, Falling Below 1.0570 So Far

Bears in the EUR / USD pair swarm and slay obstinate bulls. As the US Dollar strengthens, Euro shorts are moving in on 1.0570.

Daniel Rogers

2023-03-01

12100

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EUR / USD fell to a low of 1.0573 on Tuesday, but that was not the whole story. Earlier in the day, the Euro attracted buyers in response to higher-than-anticipated French inflation data, which pushed short-term euro zone yields to their highest levels in at least a decade. Then, at the start of the US trading session, the pair rallied to 1.0645 as US data indicated that the Fed's rate increases were beginning to have the desired effect, in contrast to a number of previous inflationary outcomes.

"Base effects from Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year should start to drive annual inflation down from March, but the ECB will be primarily concerned with sequential monthly inflation increases," ANZ Bank analysts said. German and euro area inflation data will be published in the coming days and will provide a more complete inflation backdrop for the Governing Council meeting in March.

The US Consumer Confidence unexpectedly declined in February, falling to 102.9 from 106 in January, well below the forecasted 108.5. This weighed on the US Dollar. In addition, the S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller national home price index increased only 5.8% year-over-year and declined 0.5% in December, and the Chicago PMI business survey for February was also weaker than anticipated.

The US Nonfarm Payrolls employment data for February, which will be released on March 10, and the Consumer Price Index, which will be released on March 14, will be key determinants of expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate policy. Analysts at Westpac predict that the ISM manufacturing PMI will continue to reflect the fragility of the sector in February (market expectation: 45.5), and that the final estimate of the S&P Global manufacturing PMI will likely corroborate this as well. "Construction expenditure is anticipated to remain subdued in January due to weakening demand (market consensus: 0.2%). Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, will also speak.