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Market News BI to keep rates unchanged on April 23 as foreign exchange concerns outweigh growth risks

BI to keep rates unchanged on April 23 as foreign exchange concerns outweigh growth risks

The market expects that the BI will maintain the interest rate at 5.75% in its interest rate decision on April 23.

2025-04-22

6545

Indonesia's central bank

Indonesia's central bank will keep interest rates steady on Wednesday to support the under-pressure rupiah, a Reuters poll of economists found, despite growing concerns about slowing economic growth due to U.S.-led trade policies.

With the rupiah down more than 4% this year and hovering near record lows, the central bank is likely to remain cautious and refrain from hasty rate cuts.

The currency was initially pressured by President Prabowo Subianto’s fiscal plans but more recently by the United States’ 32% tariffs on all imports from Indonesia, which are now suspended for 90 days.

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said recently that Southeast Asia's largest economy has been growing steadily at around 5% for years, but U.S. tariffs could slow its economic growth by 0.3% to 0.5%.Indonesia is currently negotiating a trade deal with Washington.

All but two of 26 economists polled by Reuters from April 14 to 21 predicted the central bank would maintain its benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate, open new page , at 5.75% on Wednesday.

Overnight deposit and lending rates are also expected to remain at 5.00% and 6.50%, respectively.

"With the dollar surging against the rupiah following the Eid al-Fitr holiday, we doubt whether Bank Indonesia will be able to resume rate cuts in April," said Brian Tan, senior regional economist at Barclays.

Economists predict the central bank will likely cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% this quarter and to 5.25% in the third quarter, with the rate expected to remain there until the end of 2025.

"We still expect Bank Indonesia's next move to be a 25 basis point rate cut, but the timing of the cut has become increasingly uncertain," said Jeemin Bang, associate economist at Moody's Analytics.

The poll also forecast inflation to average 2.1 percent this year and rise to 2.7 percent next year, while economic growth was expected to average 4.8 percent in 2025 and 4.9 percent in 2026, slightly lower than the previous poll and official forecasts.