As the NZD/USD Consolidates above 0.6100, Michigan Sentiment Data Approaches
NZD/USD finishes the day up 0.13%, gaining ground near 0.6120. Initial Jobless Claims in the United States have fallen to their lowest level since September 2022. The Business NZ PMI for New Zealand declined from 46.7 in November to 43.1 in December.

On Friday morning, the NZD/USD pair trades on a positive note during the early Asian session. At 0.6115, the pair encounters assistance in the vicinity of the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and it is presently trading near 0.6120. The New Zealand Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to provide additional insights into monetary policy developments by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), will be a hotly anticipated event the following week.
On Thursday, the Labor Department disclosed that Initial Jobless Claims in the United States have fallen to their lowest level since September 2022. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased from 203,000 in the previous reading to 187,000 for the week ending January 13. The actual number of continuing claims was 1,806 million, which exceeded the estimate of 1,845 million.
The favorable data may impede the Federal Reserve's (Fed) ability to initiate interest rate reductions in March. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, investor expectations for a rate reduction at the March meeting have decreased to levels below 60%.
The markets anticipate that the RBNZ will initiate its easing cycle on the Kiwi front in August 2024, bringing the OCR to 3.5% over a period of 12 months. Next week, traders will be more influenced by the inflation data from New Zealand. It is anticipated that the headline CPI for the fourth quarter will decelerate significantly from 5.6% to 4.7% year-over-year (0.6% quarter-over-quarter).
According to the most recent data from Business NZ, the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) for New Zealand declined from 46.7 in November to 43.1 in December. The aforementioned number signifies the ninth consecutive month in which manufacturing activity in New Zealand has declined.
Ahead of January, market participants will closely observe the preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Existing Home Sales. M. Barr (Board of Governors) and M. Daly (San Francisco) are both scheduled to deliver speeches later in the day. The NZD/USD pair might gain a distinct direction from these data.
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