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Market News As Traders Await US CPI, the USD/JPY Exchange Rate Moves Closer To The Monthly High, With 144.00 Once Again In Sight

As Traders Await US CPI, the USD/JPY Exchange Rate Moves Closer To The Monthly High, With 144.00 Once Again In Sight

On Thursday, USD/JPY trades with a positive inclination for the fourth consecutive day. The divergent outlook for BoJ and Fed policy continues to support the main. However, bulls appear hesitant and prefer to await the crucial US CPI report.

TOP1 Markets Analyst

2023-08-10

7248

USD:JPY 2.png

During Thursday's Asian session, the USD/JPY pair climbs back towards the monthly high and is presently trading in the 143.80 region, up for the fourth consecutive day.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to be pressured by the growing consensus that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will maintain its dovish posture, which turns out to be a significant factor supporting the USD/JPY pair. In fact, the BoJ stated in its Summary of Opinions for the July 28 meeting that it has a considerable distance to travel before revising its position on the negative interest rate policy. This is in stark contrast to the relatively more hawkish posture adopted by other major central banks, including the Federal Reserve (Fed), which, along with a modest increase in the US Dollar (USD), supports the major.

In fact, the markets appear to be convinced that the US central bank will maintain higher interest rates for a prolonged period of time in the wake of an exceptionally resilient economy. The likelihood of a soft economic landing was increased by the most recent US jobs report released last Friday, which indicated the sustained tightness of the labour market and increased the likelihood of a soft economic landing. In turn, this leaves the door wide open for another 25-bps rate hike in September or November and allows the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond to remain above the 4.00% threshold. Rising US bond yields support the dollar and the USD/JPY pair.

The USD bulls, on the other hand, appear reluctant to place aggressive bets and would rather await the publication of the latest US consumer inflation data, scheduled for later in the early North American session. The crucial US CPI report will influence expectations regarding the Fed's future rate-hike path, which should drive USD demand and provide fresh direction to the USD/JPY pair. In the interim, a generally subdued risk sentiment could benefit the JPY's relative safe-haven status and cap any meaningful upside or spot prices, necessitating caution before positioning for additional intraday gains.