Gold Forecast: All That Glitters is Not Gold (With Trading Strategy)
Gold, silver coin demand surging, straining U.S. Mint's capacity; Gold price to hit record highs in Q2 as retail demand picks up, says Standard Chartered.

Gold prices dropped as the dollar moved higher and U.S. yields rose. Silver prices, which surged 10% on Monday, reversed course and weighed on gold prices.
Spot gold rose slightly on Wednesday, and the spot gold rose 0.18% to $1841.22 per ounce, silver rose 1.23% to $26.983 per ounce by 11:50(GMT+8).
Silver prices attempted a rebound on Wednesday after an over 8% plunge in the previous session prompted some buying, although the social media-driven rally that started last week appears to have cooled off.
Silver rocketed to their highest since 2013 on Monday after small investors responded to calls on Reddit and other social media to pile into the market and push prices up.
The amount of silver traded in the London market surged to 1.006 billion ounces on Monday, three times the level typical in recent months, the London Bullion Market Association said on Tuesday.
The United States Mint said on Tuesday it was unable to meet surging demand for its gold and silver bullion coins in 2020 and through January, due partly to pandemic-driven demand and plant capacity issues.
Sales of U.S. gold bullion coins rose 258% in 2020 while silver coin demand was up 28%, the U.S. Mint said Tuesday. Heavy buying has continued in 2021, it said, squeezing supplies, which had already been tight as the coronavirus affected production.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Tuesday new growth forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office showed the United States "desperately" needs Congress to act on President Joe Biden's coronavirus rescue package.
Even though gold has been stuck in a narrow trading range for the past month, Standard Chartered still sees the precious metal hitting new all-time highs in the second quarter of this year.
"We believe the price risk remains upwards," said Standard Chartered precious metals analyst Suki Cooper.
The macro-environment remains supportive of higher prices in light of the weaker U.S. dollar projections, negative real yields, more stimulus, dovish monetary policies, and rising inflation expectations, Cooper wrote on Friday.
The start of 2021 also saw retail demand pick up, with January U.S. coin sales on track to match the 1999 high.
Another trend to keep in mind during Biden's administration is that coin sales tend to be stronger during Democratic administrations rather than Republican, she added.
Physical demand for gold still remains weak after falling to 11-year lows in 2020. For example, jewelry demand fell to a record low since the start of the database in 1995.
"The physical market started to recover in Q4-2020, led by growth in China and India, but demand from these regions have started to soften, suggesting that investor demand still has to do most of the work to drive gold prices higher," said Cooper.
Trading Strategy (source: Trading Central)
Pivot: 1848.00
Our preference: short positions below 1848.00 with targets at 1831.00 & 1823.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 1848.00 look for further upside with 1857.00 & 1866.00 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.
Supports and resistances:
1866.00
1857.00
1848.00
1842.00 Last
1831.00
1823.00
1813.00
Guideline for Trading Central strategy
Trend chart reading guideline
1. First look at the time period in the upper left corner of the chart: ·30MIN and 1H chart shows the trading suggestions for intraday ·Daily chart shows the market trend analysis in next 2-3 days
2. The blue horizontal line on the chart marks the pivot: pivot indicates the reversal of the market. When the price is above the pivot, it indicates an upward trend, when the price is below the pivot , it indicates a downward trend. When the price breaks through the pivot, the trend is reversed.
3. The red and blue thin curves in the Candlestick chart chart are technical indicators: Red line is MA20+Bollinger bands, Blue line is MA50. under the Candlestick chart chart are also the technical indicators: Blue line is RSI, Red line is 9MA;
4. The green horizontal line is the resistance level for a price increase, and is also the profit target for long orders; the red horizontal line is the support level for a price decrease, and is also the profit target for short orders.
How to use TC strategy?
1.[Pivot] is the reversal line of the market trend. When the price up the pivot line which means in Bullish, you can open a long position or Buy. on the contrary, when the price under pivot line which means in bearish. You ‘d better make short positions or Sell.
2. [our preference] is the main trading suggestion for your reference. You can exit your trading refer to this target or close positions before it.
3. [Alternative scenario] is the plan B for your reference.
4. [Comment] is the technical analysis of market trends and technical support for trading strategies.
5. [Supports and resistance] Supports are levels where the price tend to find support as it falls.
Resistances are levels where the price tend to find resistance as it rises. So, exit before the trend reverse.
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