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Market News Ahead of US CPI Data, the NZD/USD Pair Trades with a Slight Negative Bias above the Mid-0.6100s

Ahead of US CPI Data, the NZD/USD Pair Trades with a Slight Negative Bias above the Mid-0.6100s

NZD/USD trades on a milder note near 0.6169 on Tuesday, despite the USD's modest recovery. The financial markets have factored in an almost 70% probability that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates in June. The RBNZ moderated its hawkish stance in response to indications that inflationary pressures are abating. Tuesday will center on the CPI inflation figures for February in the United States.

TOP1 Markets Analyst

2024-03-12

11829

On Tuesday morning, the NZD/USD pair trades with a slight negative bias above the mid-0.6100s. This is during the early Asian session. The currency is impacted by the modest recovery of the US Dollar (USD). Later in the day, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for February will be released, which investors will closely monitor. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6169 at press time, a decrease of 0.01% on the day.

Tuesday will be dominated by the US CPI data for February, during which investors will assess the persistence of inflation. In February, it is anticipated that the headline CPI will remain unchanged at 3.1% YoY, while the core CPI will moderate to 3.7% YoY. The potential deferral of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate reduction is attributed to the escalating inflation. Consequently, this could strengthen the US dollar and restrict the gains of the NZD/USD pair.

Conversely, should inflation decelerate as anticipated, it might persuade the Federal Reserve to reduce the fed funds rate during its June meeting, thereby potentially undermining the USD relative to its competitors. At this time, expectations for a rate cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) at the June meeting are greater than 70%, according to the CME Group's Fedwatch Tool.

Concerning New Zealand, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintained the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.5% during its February meeting. In contrast, indications of a reduction in inflationary pressures prompted the central bank to moderate its hawkish stance. According to a statement from the RBNZ, both core inflation and the majority of inflation expectations indicators have decreased, and the risks associated with the inflation outlook have become more equitable.

In the meantime, market participants will be monitoring the US CPI data for February on Tuesday. The New Zealand Food Price Index is scheduled for release on Wednesday of this week, followed by the US Retail Sales report on Thursday. In the vicinity of the NZD/USD pair, traders will identify trading opportunities in response to these occurrences.