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Market News Above the Mid-0.6500s, AUD/USD Remains on the Defensive as All Eyes Are on the RBA and Fed Rate Decisions

Above the Mid-0.6500s, AUD/USD Remains on the Defensive as All Eyes Are on the RBA and Fed Rate Decisions

AUD/USD falls near 0.6560 in the early Asian trading session on Monday. On Tuesday, it is anticipated that the RBA will maintain its primary interest rate at 4.35%. As inflation remains elevated, the US FOMC is likely to maintain its benchmark rate at its March meeting on Wednesday.

TOP1 Markets Analyst

2024-03-18

9639

In the early Asian session on Monday, the AUD/USD pair is trading on a negative note above the mid-0.6500s. Ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decisions on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, it is probable that markets will operate in a subdued fashion. Presently, the primary pair is trading near 0.6560, a decrease of 0.01% on the day.

It is anticipated that the RBA will maintain its key interest rate at 4.35% for the third consecutive meeting on Tuesday, March, at its meeting. Furthermore, investors anticipate at least two rate decreases in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the Australian central bank to maintain a moderate bias toward tightening. The commencement of rate reductions by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which is anticipated to occur at its June meeting, could impact the scheduling of RBA easing. A surprise dovish remark from the RBA subsequent to the policy meeting could, nevertheless, depreciate the Australian Dollar (AUD) relative to the US Dollar (USD).

The Fed, on the other hand, is likely to maintain monetary policy at its March meeting despite the increase in U.S. inflation. In recent weeks, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell issued a cautionary statement regarding premature interest rate cuts and emphasized the importance of a "data-dependent" approach in guaranteeing that inflation firmly returns to the 2% target.

The preliminary US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March decreased from 76.9 in February to 76.5 on Friday, falling short of market expectations of 76.7. Furthermore, the inflation expectations for the subsequent year and five years remained unchanged at 3.0% and 2.9%, respectively.

In anticipation, the RBA is scheduled to declare its interest rate determination on Tuesday, whereas the Fed is scheduled to do so on Wednesday. In the vicinity of the AUD/USD pair, traders will identify trading opportunities in response to these occurrences.