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Market News Above 0.6350, AUD/USD Remains On The Defensive; Attention Turns To US CPI Data

Above 0.6350, AUD/USD Remains On The Defensive; Attention Turns To US CPI Data

Early on Monday, AUD/USD maintained its defensive position above the mid-0.6300s. In November, consumer sentiment decreased, while inflation expectations increased, according to the US University of Michigan. The RBA Monetary Policy Statement stated that while inflation has declined from its apex, it remains significantly elevated compared to initial projections.

TOP1 Markets Analyst

2023-11-13

8237

Throughout the early Asian session on Monday, selling pressure for the AUD/USD pair has persisted. Apprehension regarding China's economic expansion exerts pressure on the Australian Dollar (AUD), while the US Dollar (USD) appreciates due to elevated yields on US Treasury bonds. Presently, the pair is trading near 0.6355, a decrease of 0.07% on the day.

The initial Consumer Sentiment data from the US University of Michigan for November decreased from 63.8 the previous month to 60.4, the lowest reading of the year. The one-year inflation expectation increased from 4.2% to 4.4%, while the five-year inflation expectation reached its greatest level in eleven years at 3.2%.

At its December meeting, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is unlikely to increase interest rates once more, according to market sentiment. As per the CME FedWatch Tools, the probability of interest rate increases in December has diminished to 14.4%. Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, has stated, however, that the organisation will not hesitate to raise interest rates once more if required. Key economic indicators, such as the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), could provide indications regarding monetary policy direction this week.

In the Australian context, the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) was unveiled by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Friday. The report revealed that while inflation has declined from its zenith, it continues to persist at a significant level and has been more enduring than initially anticipated a few months ago. The RBA will return inflation to its target level; however, whether further monetary policy tightening is necessary will be determined by forthcoming data.

Tuesday will see the release of the Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence for November, which market participants will be observing. The release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be an event that traders attentively monitor. In October, it is anticipated that the monthly CPI will decline to 0.1% from 0.4% in the previous reading, while the core CPI will remain unchanged at 0.3%.