AUD/USD rebounded from a week and a half low, focus on resistance in the 0.7390-0.7400 range

On Monday (September 13), the Australian dollar to US dollar rebounded by more than 30 points from the one-and-a-half-week low in early trading on Monday, and set an intraday high before the opening of the North American session. The exchange rate is currently trading near the 0.7360 area, with a slight increase in the day.


US stock futures rose strongly, and the prevalence of risk appetite became a key factor supporting the risky currency, the Australian dollar. However, thanks to the Fed’s expectation that it will announce its balance sheet reduction plan, as the US dollar is broadly strengthening, the exchange rate’s upward trend lacks support.

From a technical point of view, the recent decline of the Australian dollar against the US dollar since the highest level since mid-July stopped near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the strong rise of 0.7106-0.7478, which coincides with the 200 SMA in the 4-hour chart, due to economic data Light, this bit should now constitute a key pivot point.

At the same time, the Japanese chart's technical indicators have stabilized in the positive zone, but have been struggling to gain any meaningful traction. In addition, the 4-hour chart oscillator has not yet fully rebounded from the bearish zone, and bullish traders should remain cautious before betting on further gains.

Therefore, any subsequent gains are more likely to face strong resistance near the 0.7390 area where the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level is located. It is followed by the 0.7400 mark. If it breaks decisively, it will pave the way for a breakthrough of 0.7450 and another test of the monthly highs near the 0.7478 area.

On the other hand, the confluence support level of 0.7336 should continue to limit the immediate downside of the exchange rate. Some follow-up selling may drag the exchange rate down further to test below 0.7300 or the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. If it falls below the above support level, it will be regarded as a new trigger for bearish traders.

After that, the Australian dollar against the US dollar may accelerate its decline towards the support levels of 0.7250 and 0.7230-25, and will eventually fall to the integer mark of 0.7200. The downtrend will further extend to the horizontal support level of 0.7170-65. If it falls below this level, the bears may be committed to retesting the annual low near the 0.7100 mark.

(Australian dollar against the dollar daily chart)