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AUD/USD falls toward 0.6900 as the Australian Finance Minister predicts economic problems
AUD/USD sustains its first weekly advance in three weeks. Australia Finance Minister Katy Gallagher identifies economic concerns for the Pacific's dominant nation. As worries of a recession dampen market mood, the US dollar fails to improve. For near-term directions, US data and central banker statements will be essential.
Friday's reversal of a two-week decline in the AUD/USD pair has been short-lived, as the pair has retraced to 0.6910 since. Despite erasing the previous day's gains during Monday's Asian session, the AUD/USD pair reflects the economic concerns surrounding Australia as well as the global economy.
According to AAP Australian General News, Australian Finance Minister (FinMin) Katy Gallagher crossed wires over the weekend as she said Australia faces economic issues. According to Reuters, the comments follow warnings that the global economy risks a poisonous mix of low growth and excessive inflation, often known as stagflation.
Elsewhere, Australia's Treasurer Jim Chalmers highlighted worries of increased inflation over the weekend, despite predicting a rate of 7.0 percent and concurring with a central bank estimate.
According to Reuters, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe stated on Friday that he does not anticipate a recession in Australia, but that there is a limited route back to low inflation.
Notably, Reuters reported that the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has called for interest rates to be hiked "immediately and firmly" in order to prevent the inflationary spike from becoming even more severe.
Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), misspoke over the weekend when she stated, "Further negative shocks will undoubtedly make the US economic situation'more difficult'." Notable is the IMF's downward revision of US GDP projections for 2022 to 2.9% from 3.7% previously expected.
US New Home Sales for May, by 10.7 percent compared to April's revised statistics of -12.0 percent, together with the record low print of the final reading of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for June, to 50.0 from 50.2 early projections, weighed heavily on the US dollar.
S&P 500 Futures fail to mirror Wall Street's advances, falling 0.30 percent intraday at the latest, whilst 10-year US Treasury rates jump 1.5 basis points (bps) to about 3.13 percent after suffering their first weekly drop in four weeks.
Moving forward, US Durable Goods Orders for May, anticipated to be 0.1 percent compared to 0.5 percent previously, and Pending Home Sales, anticipated to be -2.0 percent compared to -3.9 percent before, will be crucial for daily direction. However, Wednesday's discussion with central bankers from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Europe at the ECB Forum on Central Banking will be an essential event to monitor for obvious market trends.
Technical Evaluation
Although an upward sloping trend line from May 12 limits the downside at 0.6885, the AUD/USD pair's drop from the 10-day moving average of 0.6945 keeps bearish optimistic.
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