Market News AUD/USD bears gaining momentum, three major events are expected to bring buying opportunities
AUD/USD bears gaining momentum, three major events are expected to bring buying opportunities
On November 15, the U.S. dollar index continued to fall slightly, but it was still near a 16-month high as investors waited for new clues about the U.S. economy. The Australian dollar rose against the US dollar. However, under the prospect of divergence in the central bank’s policy outlook, the Reserve Bank of Australia and economic data may further put pressure on the Australian dollar. Analysts believe that the Australian dollar against the dollar bulls may usher in a good opportunity to enter the market this week.
2021-11-15
11244
On Monday (November 15), the US dollar index continued to fall slightly, but it was still near a 16-month high, as investors waited for new clues about the US economy. The Australian dollar rose against the US dollar. However, under the prospect of divergence in the central bank’s policy outlook, the Reserve Bank of Australia and economic data may further put pressure on the Australian dollar. Analysts believe that the short Australian dollar against the dollar may usher in a good opportunity to enter the market this week.
The dollar has been strengthening since last Wednesday. Last Wednesday's data showed that last month the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at the fastest annual rate since 1990, making the market doubt that the Fed’s price pressure will be a temporary position.
Until last Friday, the U.S. dollar index fell slightly after hitting a 3.5-month high, but it still set its biggest weekly gain since mid-August, hitting the 95 mark for the first time since July 2020.
The main event of the US economy this week will be the retail sales data released on Tuesday. In particular, the survey released last Friday showed that consumer confidence unexpectedly fell to a 10-year low in early November, as high inflation hit confidence.
Ray Attrill, head of foreign exchange strategy at National Australia Bank, said in a client report: "From the summer, market sentiment and consumption levels show differences, so it may be more important to observe consumption data rather than market sentiment."
Westpac Bank strategists wrote in a research report that after the inflation data "burst" on Wednesday, the US dollar index accelerated, and the Fed's reduction of stimulus plan, US President Biden's infrastructure spending and the tightening of the job market also increased. The dollar provides support.
On Monday, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar rose against the US dollar due to better-than-expected retail sales and industrial output data in major consumer countries. At the same time, the fall in the US dollar index also gave the Australian dollar momentum.
However, while Fed officials' discussions on inflation and interest rate hikes are gradually heating up, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) still insists on its moderate interest rate policy. Starting from last weekend, the money market predicted that the Fed will raise interest rates for the first time before July, and it is likely to raise interest rates again before November next year. The divergence of the policy prospects of the two central banks once caused the Australian dollar to retreat against the US dollar.
On this basis, strategists expect that the Australian dollar will not be able to continue to strengthen on the basis of this week’s gains. The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce the minutes of its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. At the same time, the Reserve Bank of Australia Chairman Lowe will give a speech on recent inflation trends. On Wednesday, the salary price index for the third quarter will be announced.
A strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia told clients in a report, "We still believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia has room for lower interest rate hike expectations, which is not good for the Australian dollar. And the wage price index for the third quarter of 2021 may trigger some Australian dollar fluctuations on Wednesday. The governor of the Bank of Australia may emphasize that wage growth in Australia is still much weaker compared to some other advanced economies."
Westpac Bank strategist said: "Retail sales may be strong this week, because economic growth has been out of the influence of the delta mutant strain. The Australian dollar against the US dollar this week may have a good buying opportunity."
(Australian dollar against the dollar daily chart)
GMT+8 15:15 on November 15th, the Australian dollar against the US dollar reported 0.7348/50
CPI pushed the US dollar to start the "acceleration mode" last week, and this week's "terror data" is expected to create another buying opportunity
The dollar has been strengthening since last Wednesday. Last Wednesday's data showed that last month the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at the fastest annual rate since 1990, making the market doubt that the Fed’s price pressure will be a temporary position.
Until last Friday, the U.S. dollar index fell slightly after hitting a 3.5-month high, but it still set its biggest weekly gain since mid-August, hitting the 95 mark for the first time since July 2020.
The main event of the US economy this week will be the retail sales data released on Tuesday. In particular, the survey released last Friday showed that consumer confidence unexpectedly fell to a 10-year low in early November, as high inflation hit confidence.
Ray Attrill, head of foreign exchange strategy at National Australia Bank, said in a client report: "From the summer, market sentiment and consumption levels show differences, so it may be more important to observe consumption data rather than market sentiment."
Westpac Bank strategists wrote in a research report that after the inflation data "burst" on Wednesday, the US dollar index accelerated, and the Fed's reduction of stimulus plan, US President Biden's infrastructure spending and the tightening of the job market also increased. The dollar provides support.
The rise of the Australian dollar may not continue, and two economic events are expected to suppress the Australian dollar
On Monday, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar rose against the US dollar due to better-than-expected retail sales and industrial output data in major consumer countries. At the same time, the fall in the US dollar index also gave the Australian dollar momentum.
However, while Fed officials' discussions on inflation and interest rate hikes are gradually heating up, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) still insists on its moderate interest rate policy. Starting from last weekend, the money market predicted that the Fed will raise interest rates for the first time before July, and it is likely to raise interest rates again before November next year. The divergence of the policy prospects of the two central banks once caused the Australian dollar to retreat against the US dollar.
On this basis, strategists expect that the Australian dollar will not be able to continue to strengthen on the basis of this week’s gains. The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce the minutes of its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. At the same time, the Reserve Bank of Australia Chairman Lowe will give a speech on recent inflation trends. On Wednesday, the salary price index for the third quarter will be announced.
A strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia told clients in a report, "We still believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia has room for lower interest rate hike expectations, which is not good for the Australian dollar. And the wage price index for the third quarter of 2021 may trigger some Australian dollar fluctuations on Wednesday. The governor of the Bank of Australia may emphasize that wage growth in Australia is still much weaker compared to some other advanced economies."
Westpac Bank strategist said: "Retail sales may be strong this week, because economic growth has been out of the influence of the delta mutant strain. The Australian dollar against the US dollar this week may have a good buying opportunity."
(Australian dollar against the dollar daily chart)
GMT+8 15:15 on November 15th, the Australian dollar against the US dollar reported 0.7348/50
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