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Market News AUD/USD Remains Below The 0.6700/200-Day Simple Moving Average And Moves Little Following Chinese Inflation Data

AUD/USD Remains Below The 0.6700/200-Day Simple Moving Average And Moves Little Following Chinese Inflation Data

AUD/USD stays below the 200-day SMA through Monday's Asian session. The emergence of USD buying proves to be a significant factor in limiting the pair. China's economic difficulties also contribute to the Australian dollar's stability as a China proxy.

TOP1 Markets Analyst

2023-07-10

6507

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Through Monday's Asian session, the AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalise on Friday's robust positive move and remains below 0.6700, or a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

The likelihood of additional policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) later this month continues to support elevated US Treasury bond yields and helps the US Dollar (USD) attract investors on the first trading day of the week. In fact, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback versus a basket of currencies, recovers a portion of Friday's heavy losses to a new monthly low and emerges as a significant factor operating as a headwind for the AUD/USD pair.

However, diminished bets on any additional Fed rate hikes beyond the one expected in July may discourage traders from positioning for a meaningful USD appreciation. Investors appear to be convinced that the US central bank will soften its hawkish posture sooner rather than later. These expectations were fueled by Friday's rather unimpressive US employment report, which revealed that the economy added the fewest jobs in 2-1/2 years in June.

The preceding fundamental environment suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair is to the upside, although China's economic difficulties continue to act as a headwind for the China-proxy Australian dollar. Worries were fuelled by Chinese inflation data that showed the headline CPI fell 0.2% in June and the annual rate was unchanged. In addition, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 5.4% year-over-year during the reported month.

In the absence of any market-moving economic disclosures from the United States on Monday, traders will look to a speech by Fed Governor Michael Barr for direction. Together with the US bond yields, this could affect the USD and provide impetus for the AUD/USD pair. Focus remains, however, on Wednesday's publication of the latest US consumer inflation figures, which will play a significant role in driving USD demand in the near term.