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AUD/USD Price Analysis: Remains Below 0.6500, Investors Await 200-SMA Crossover On H4
A one-and-a-half-week high in AUD/USD was reached earlier this Thursday. The overnight breakout of a downward channel favours bullish speculators. Investors eagerly anticipate the Jackson Hole Symposium prior to placing new wagers.
The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalise on its weekly gains and retreats a few ticks from a weekly high reached during Thursday's Asian session. Spot prices are currently trading near 0.6475, down less than 0.10% on the day, as traders await the Jackson Hole Symposium before placing new direction wagers.
In the meantime, deteriorating economic conditions in China and rising wagers on another on-hold decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in September continue to operate as headwinds for the Australian dollar (AUD). On the other hand, the US Dollar (USD) is expected to consolidate the overnight retracement decline from its highest level in more than two months and provide some support for the AUD/USD pair.
The overnight breach of a downward-sloping channel extending from the monthly peak was viewed as a fresh catalyst for bulls from a technical standpoint. In addition, oscillators on hourly charts remain in the positive territory and support the likelihood of further gains. Before placing fresh favourable wagers, it will be prudent to await a sustained strength above the 0.6500 psychological level.
On the 4-hour chart, the aforementioned handle coincides with the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and should serve as a pivot point. Some follow-through buying should pave the way for an extension of the recent recovery from last week's yearly low and push the AUD/USD pair higher towards the 0.6530 region en route to the 0.6570-0.6575 horizontal barrier and the 0.6600 round-figure level.
In contrast, the 0.6455-0.6450 region now appears to protect the near-term downside in front of the 0.6425-0.6420 zone and the 0.6400 level. A convincing break below the latter will expose the yearly low around the 0.6365 zone, below which the AUD/USD pair could eventually fall to the 0.6300 level, representing the downside target of the bearish double-top chart pattern formation near 0.6900.
Following this is the 0.6270 region or the November 2022 nadir. Some follow-through selling could make the AUD/USD pair susceptible to further declines towards the 0.6200 round number.
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