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Market News AUD/USD Fluctuates Near 0.6850 As The Year Comes To a Close

AUD/USD Fluctuates Near 0.6850 As The Year Comes To a Close

The Aussie experiences challenging sideways movement in year-end trading. Broad-market dollar sell-off flows have held the AUD/USD near the peak. US data predominates the agenda as 2023 comes to a close.

TOP1 Markets Analyst
2023-12-29
7110

 AUD:USD 2.png

 

As markets churn on the second-to-last trading day of 2023, the AUD/USD briefly struck multi-month highs just below 0.6900 in early Thursday trading before settling back to cycle near 0.6850. US Dollar flows set the tone for the broader market.

 

Contingently, money markets place their aspirations and hopes on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) accelerated tempo of rate cuts in 2024. Investors have placed bets on rate cuts commencing as early as March and have pegged upwards of 160 basis points in rate cuts through the conclusion of the following year.

 

In anticipation of a significant policy shift from the Federal Reserve in the coming months, US data is dominating the economic calendar as 2023 nears its conclusion.

 

In contrast to the anticipated 210K, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending December 22 came in at 218K, a significant increase from the previous week's figure of 206K (revised marginally higher from 205K). In addition, US Pending Home Sales for November fell short of expectations, publishing at a stagnant 0.0% versus the anticipated 1.0% rebound from October's revised downward revision from -1.5%.

 

Money markets benefit from bad news, as uncertain US data increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will be compelled to initiate the next rate-cutting cycle as soon as possible. The Federal Reserve was firmly committed to a "rates higher for longer" narrative just one month prior; the abrupt change in position by the US central bank in December ignited a substantial risk rally towards the end of 2023. With the US Dollar falling more than 3.5 percent against the Australian Dollar (AUD), numerous efforts by Fed officials to cool off heated markets have thus far been ineffective.

 

On Friday, the 2023 trading year will come to a close with the December US Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index, which is anticipated to fall from 55.8 to 51.0.


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