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Market News AUD/USD Falls above 0.6500 in Anticipation of Data on Australian Building Permits

AUD/USD Falls above 0.6500 in Anticipation of Data on Australian Building Permits

AUD/USD weakens near 0.6525 on Monday, notwithstanding the USD's weakness. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI decreased from 49.1 to 47.8 in February, which was below expectations. Recent Australian inflation data provided further support for the RBA's position that interest rate reductions should commence later this year.

TOP1 Markets Analyst
2024-03-04
7468

 AUD:USD 2.png

 

Monday morning during the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD pair trades weaker, below the mid-0.6500s. Despite the decline in the US Dollar (USD) and US yields, the pair loses momentum. The Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter is anticipated by investors prior to the publication of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). At present, AUD/USD is trading near 0.6525, a decrease of 0.08% on the day.

 

Friday marked the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for February, which decreased from 49.1 in January to 47.8, which was below expectations. At 49.2, the New Orders Index entered contractionary territory, whereas the Production Index and Employment Index both declined to 48.4 and 45.9, respectively. Additionally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index experienced a decline from 79.6 to 76.9.

 

Fed President Raphael Bostic of Atlanta anticipated that the initial rate reduction would be warranted by the end of this year at the latest, given the ongoing decline in the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. At its June meeting, the financial markets have factored in a 70% probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will initiate interest rate reductions.

 

In January, however, the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.4%, which was lower than the 3.5% increase anticipated by the market.  The argument that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) should initiate interest rate reductions later this year was bolstered by Australian inflation. In addition, the Tuesday release of the Chinese Caixin Services PMI could impact market risk sentiment. The data that fell short of expectations may depress the Australian Dollar (AUD), which is a proxy for China, and provide a headwind for the AUD/USD pair.

 

Monday is the deadline for Australian Building Permits, and Tuesday will see the release of the Judo Bank Composite PMI for February. This week will be dominated by the Australian fourth-quarter GDP growth and US nonfarm payrolls figures. The AUD/USD pair might obtain a distinct direction from these occurrences.

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