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AUD/USD Exchange Price Analysis: Bulls Are In The Lead Near The 0.6430-35 Region, Which Is Above The Three-Week High
For the second consecutive day, AUD/USD obtains traction and ascends to a level above its three-week high. The post-FOMC selling bias in the USD has emerged as a significant catalyst for the current upward trend. A breach of the 50-day SMA and the 23.6% Fibo provides additional support for the possibility of additional gains.
Expanding on the previous day's robust ascent, the AUD/USD pair obtains positive follow-through momentum for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The post-FOMC weakness in the US Dollar (USD) provides the impetus for the surge in spot values, which reach a three-week high in the 0.6435 region during the Asian session.
Notwithstanding the Fed's reluctance to rule out further interest rate hikes in response to the unforeseen resilience of the US economy, investors appear certain that the US central bank is approaching the termination of its current cycle of rate rises. The AUD/USD pair is supported by the persistent decrease in US Treasury bond yields, which is perceived to exert pressure on the USD and thereby reinforce this trend.
Furthermore, an overall optimistic sentiment observed in the equity markets serves as an additional element that undermines the safe-haven value of the US dollar while favouring the risk-averse Australian dollar (AUD). The trade surplus in September decreased significantly from A$9.64 billion to A$6.786 billion, which fell short of expectations. Bullish speculators, meanwhile, appear unaffected by the rather unimpressive macro data from Australia.
For the first time since July, the AUD/USD pair has achieved technical approval above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This, in conjunction with a movement surpassing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from July to October, might be perceived by bullish traders as a new catalyst. Furthermore, the daily chart oscillators have recently initiated a positive movement, thereby confirming the constructive configuration.
This, in turn, supports the likelihood of a further upward movement and indicates that the AUD/USD pair is facing the least amount of resistance. Some follow-through buying beyond the monthly swing high for October, in the vicinity of 0.6445, will reaffirm the positive bias and enable spot prices to ascend further towards the confluence of 0.6500-0.6510, which contains the 100-day SMA and the 38.2% Fibo level.
Conversely, the 50-day SMA breakpoint for resistance, located just below 0.6400, appears to be safeguarding the immediate downside at this time. A convincing break below will reveal the horizontal support between 0.6335-0.6325, which the AUD/USD pair may further descend towards the round-figure mark of 0.6300. Bears may then attempt to retest the YTD nadir, which was reached on October 26 in the vicinity of 0.6270.
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