English
AUD/NZD Price Analysis: The 200-day exponential moving average is a vital support for Aussie bulls
The kiwi bulls have been bolstered by AUD/obvious NZD's trend reversal. The 200-EMA serves as a significant cushion for the counter. If the RSI (14) enters the negative zone of 20.00-40.00, a downward momentum will be triggered.
The AUD/NZD pair has fallen below 1.1300 at Tokyo as the negative bias gains strength. The cross is falling in the late New York session after encountering significant resistance around 1.1320. Policy divergence between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continues to weigh on the Australian dollar bulls.
The development of lower highs and lower lows on a four-hour timeframe has verified the trend reversal, compelling market participants to "sell rise." Several times, the Australian bulls have felt brief demand from the formidable 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The 200-EMA cushion is crucial for the cross, and price movement near the 200-EMA will determine the cross's future path.
At 1.1363, a bearish crossover between the 20-period and 50-period EMAs adds to the downward filters.
In addition, the Relative Strength Index (14) has switched from the bullish range of 60.00-80.00 to the neutral region of 40.00-60.00, indicating that kiwi bulls are no longer bearish. Momentum will be triggered by a breakdown of the momentum oscillator into the negative area of 20.00-40.00.
The kiwi bulls will gain power if the cross gives up the 50% Fibo retracement at 1.1240, which would pull the asset to the round-level support at 1.1200, followed by the 61.8% Fibo retracement at 1.1180.
Alternately, a break over the 23.6% Fibo retracement level near 1.1375 would propel the asset to the 30 September high of 1.1440. A violation of the latter will push the asset to its high of 1.1462 on September 26.
Bonus rebate to help investors grow in the trading world!
