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Market News AUD/NZD Extends Its Range Above 1.0950 On Positive New Zealand Trade Balance Data

AUD/NZD Extends Its Range Above 1.0950 On Positive New Zealand Trade Balance Data

AUD/NZD is anticipated to extend its rebound above 1.0950 despite stronger New Zealand Trade Balance figures. A rising NZ labor cost index will raise inflation estimates further. Monthly declines in Australian Retail Sales should alleviate some of the RBA's concerns.

Daniel Rogers
2023-01-30
10888

 AUD:NZD.png

 

In the early Asian session, the AUD/NZD pair demonstrated a strong comeback after opening with a gap down to about 1.0926. Despite the publication of optimistic New Zealand Trade Balance statistics, the cross is gaining ground.

 

Exports for the month of December increased to $6.72B from $6.34B before, while imports decreased to $7.19B from $8.52B previously. The yearly Trade Balance came in at -14.46 billion New Zealand dollars, compared to -14.98 billion previously reported.

 

Investors will closely monitor the New Zealand Employment statistics, which will be released on Wednesday, for more direction. The Employment Change (Q4) is anticipated to decline to 0.7% from 1.3% in the previous release. The unemployment rate is expected to remain constant at 3.3%. As a result of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increasing interest rates, the New Zealand economy is failing to provide major employment possibilities (RBNZ).

 

Aside from this, the labor cost index data will dominate the conversation. The employment bills index (annual) is predicted to increase to 4.45 from the earlier release of 3.8%. And, the quarterly figure is projected higher at 1.3% vs 1.1% in the last release. A rise in labor costs might keep inflationary pressures on the incline since families would have more liquid assets.

 

Notably, the New Zealand economy has not shown any signs of inflation softening as the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Q4) increased to 7.2% from the consensus estimate of 7.1% on an annual basis, and an increase in retail demand will exacerbate inflationary pressures.

 

On the Australian front, investors are keeping a close eye on Tuesday's monthly retail sales data, which is anticipated to show a 0.3% decline from the previous release of 1.4%. This might trim issues for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which is struggling the curb the tenacious inflation in the Australian economy.


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