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Market News AUD/JPY Oscillates Around a Three-Week High Of 90.00 As a Rate Hike By The RBA Appears Imminent

AUD/JPY Oscillates Around a Three-Week High Of 90.00 As a Rate Hike By The RBA Appears Imminent

AUD/JPY reaches a multi-day high after reaching its highest level in seven weeks the day before. Unstable yields and a light economic calendar amplify pre-RBA anxiety as traders remain divided over the next move of the Australian central bank. In a close situation, the RBA may increase interest rates by 0.25%. Focus on Rate Statement owing to rumors of a rate-hike hiatus.

Daniel Rogers

2023-04-04

9952

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AUD/JPY fluctuates around the 90.00 round number as the market anticipates the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Interest Rate Decision on Tuesday morning.

The cross-currency pair, also known as the risk-barometer, surged the most in seven weeks the day before as traders braced for the dovish RBA hike and disregarded inflation fears stemming from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, move.

Notably, the bearish yields and muddled data from China and Australia failed to deter the AUD/JPY investors the day before, despite cautious optimism in the market. Four consecutive days prior to Monday, 10-year US Treasury bond yields declined to 3.42 percent, while their two-year counterpart yielded 3.92 percent, a decline of two days.

Nevertheless, Australia's TD Securities Inflation for March slowed to 0.3% MoM and 5.7% YoY from 0.4% and 6.2%, respectively, in February. In addition, China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for March declines to 50.0 from 51.6 previously and 51.7 market expectations.

In contrast, Japan's Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for the first quarter (Q1) of 2023, a closely watched indicator of output by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), decreased to 1.0 from 7.0 in the previous readings and 3.0 as expected. In contrast, Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI for March increased from 48.2 to 49.2. However, the figure below 50 indicates a decline in private manufacturing activities.

After Wall Street's muddled close, the S&P 500 Futures struggle for direction amid these trades.

A 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is imminent, so AUD/JPY traders should closely monitor signals for the RBA's next movements. Even if the Australian central bank announces a rate hike, bears may enter the market if the RBA Statement reveals a policy reversal.