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Market News A summary of institutions' views on financial markets on June 10
A summary of institutions' views on financial markets on June 10
On June 10, institutions summarized their views on the stock market, commodities, foreign exchange, economic prospects, and central bank policy prospects:
2022-06-10
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On June 10, institutions summarized their views on the stock market, commodities, foreign exchange, economic prospects, and central bank policy prospects:
1. Franklin Templeton's strategists say there will be at most a "mini-recession" in the U.S. economy;
Franklin Templeton's Katrina Dudley disagreed with the notion that the U.S. economy would experience a severe downturn, calling the worst-case scenario a "mini-recession." Economic and business data did not suggest the downturn would "constitute a severe recession". We look at the housing market, which will continue to support the economy; we look at the supply chain, and while we have increased flexibility in some parts of it, there is not a lot of inventory in the system. Dudley expects more support for the economy from business and government spending, coupled with strong employment and a post-pandemic unleashing of pent-up demand for services
2. Wells Fargo: Market participants are not expected to expect multiple 50 basis point rate hikes from the European Central Bank;
Wells Fargo acknowledged that a larger rate hike by the European Central Bank in September is not a certainty, and the final rate hike will depend on inflation and economic activity data, but it is inclined to think that a larger rate hike will be taken at the September meeting. The ECB is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points at each of its July, December, March and June meetings, in addition to a 50 basis point hike in September, which will bring the deposit rate up to 2022 by the end of 2022. 0.5%, rising to 1% by mid-2023. It is unlikely that the ECB or market participants will consider multiple 50 basis point rate hikes, which are expected to remain much slower than the Fed in the medium term. So today's ECB statement won't be very supportive for the EUR, in fact, still see EURUSD weakening EURUSD 1.06240.09% in the medium term
3. UBS: Upgrading Tesla from Neutral to Buy, maintaining a target price of $1,100;
UBS analyst Patrick Hummel upgraded Tesla to buy from neutral and maintained a $1,100 price target on the stock. Tesla's stock is down about 35% this year, but the company's outlook is "stronger than before," Hummel told investors in a research note. He noted that Tesla has a record backlog of orders and two new gigafactories, healthy margin growth, and that Tesla has a "structural competitive advantage" in key supply chains, including in semiconductors, Vertical integration in software and battery. The analyst lowered his 2022 profit forecast by 12% to reflect the impact of the epidemic on production; but raised his profit forecast for the next three years by 40%, corresponding to EPS of $28 in 2025
4. Bas Van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank: The ECB has clearly warned that they may see a larger rate hike in September as necessary, depending on the inflation outlook at that time. So basically, the ECB will put more emphasis on the latest forecast three months from now
5. UOB Singapore: The Bank of England will raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week;
Previously, we tended to think that the Bank of England would pause rate hikes after the policy rate reached 1.00%. However, the latest decision by the country's central bank's monetary policy committee turned out to be a bit more dovish than we expected, so another 25bps rate hike is now expected in June. As for the asset sale, we may at least have to wait until closer to the actual operation to get more information, which is currently expected to start in Q4 2022 at £5bn per month
6. Billionaire investor Novogratz warns that two-thirds of cryptocurrency hedge funds will fail;
Mike Novogratz, founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd., said that two-thirds of hedge funds investing in digital currencies will fail due to the current downturn in the cryptocurrency market. "Volumes will drop, hedge funds will be forced to restructure, there are about 1,900 cryptocurrency hedge funds in the market. I'm guessing two-thirds will go bankrupt." He pointed out that the financial market's reaction to the Fed's withdrawal of stimulus is a result of the past The reason for the six-month plunge in cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% from its record highs hit in November. Novogratz also blamed broader macroeconomic factors for the collapse of the Terra blockchain last month, rather than flaws in the project itself
7. Guotai Junan Futures: ICE lowered the margin ratio and accelerated the rise;
The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) lowered the margin of Brent crude oil futures by 10.3%, easing the tight liquidity problem on the disk after ICE's substantial margin reduction since the first quarter of this year, which is beneficial to the bulls who are on the upside. This is the strength of oil prices last night. The core of this may drive the short-term acceleration of crude oil in the internal and external disks. With the advent of the summer oil consumption peak in the northern hemisphere and the hopeless short-term return of Russian and Iranian crude oil, the average price of crude oil may continue to remain high this week under the continuation of the supply shortage pattern. Among them, the short-term outer disk and two oil may challenge 130 US dollars / barrel, and SC may challenge 800 yuan / barrel (weaker than the outer disk). In addition, the short-term market still maintains a wait-and-see attitude towards the inflation trend of the United States and Europe, and inflation expectations are still strong. From the perspective of the service industry PMI of overseas economies, the downward inflection point trend is still not smooth, which means that the current terminal demand for oil products is still strong, and supports the continued strength of oil prices in the short term. If inflation is still high, the cracking of refined oil products will likely remain high, and the mid-term trend of oil prices will still be easy to rise and hard to fall, and the inflation turning point is still the biggest uncertainty. In terms of the Asia-Pacific market, it is still necessary to be alert to the substantial increase in the supply of crude oil to the Asia-Pacific region while Russia's supply of crude oil to Europe is cut, and the resulting additional negative effects on SC. Recently, the volume of ESPO crude oil in India and domestic arrivals in Hong Kong is still relatively large.
8. Two departments: carry out data security management certification and standardize network data processing activities;
The State Administration for Market Regulation and the Cyberspace Administration of China issued an announcement on carrying out data security management certification work, deciding to carry out data security management certification work, encouraging network operators to regulate network data processing activities through certification methods, and strengthen network data security protection. Certification bodies engaged in data security management certification activities shall be established in accordance with the law, and carry out certification in accordance with the "Implementation Rules for Data Security Management Certification"
9. Bank of America: The ECB is expected to raise interest rates by a total of 150 basis points this year;
The ECB is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points in July and September, and is expected to raise rates by a total of 150 basis points in 2022 and stop raising rates in 2023. Under the pressure of persistent upward inflation, the ECB will turn hawkish, end its quantitative easing policy this week and make its first rate hike in July (possibly by 50bps), which is expected to support the euro, but it is still There are many factors weighing on the euro, the strength of the euro should only be temporary
10. Vale launches a $100 million venture capital fund;
Vale, one of the world's largest mining companies, has launched its corporate venture capital program, Vale Ventures. Vale said the $100 million fund will support startups around the world to create new business opportunities, develop innovative technologies and integrate them into Vale's operations. The company said it will acquire minority stakes in startups focusing on four areas: decarbonization of the mining value chain, zero-waste mining, metals for the energy transition, and the future of mining
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1. Franklin Templeton's strategists say there will be at most a "mini-recession" in the U.S. economy;
Franklin Templeton's Katrina Dudley disagreed with the notion that the U.S. economy would experience a severe downturn, calling the worst-case scenario a "mini-recession." Economic and business data did not suggest the downturn would "constitute a severe recession". We look at the housing market, which will continue to support the economy; we look at the supply chain, and while we have increased flexibility in some parts of it, there is not a lot of inventory in the system. Dudley expects more support for the economy from business and government spending, coupled with strong employment and a post-pandemic unleashing of pent-up demand for services
2. Wells Fargo: Market participants are not expected to expect multiple 50 basis point rate hikes from the European Central Bank;
Wells Fargo acknowledged that a larger rate hike by the European Central Bank in September is not a certainty, and the final rate hike will depend on inflation and economic activity data, but it is inclined to think that a larger rate hike will be taken at the September meeting. The ECB is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points at each of its July, December, March and June meetings, in addition to a 50 basis point hike in September, which will bring the deposit rate up to 2022 by the end of 2022. 0.5%, rising to 1% by mid-2023. It is unlikely that the ECB or market participants will consider multiple 50 basis point rate hikes, which are expected to remain much slower than the Fed in the medium term. So today's ECB statement won't be very supportive for the EUR, in fact, still see EURUSD weakening EURUSD 1.06240.09% in the medium term
3. UBS: Upgrading Tesla from Neutral to Buy, maintaining a target price of $1,100;
UBS analyst Patrick Hummel upgraded Tesla to buy from neutral and maintained a $1,100 price target on the stock. Tesla's stock is down about 35% this year, but the company's outlook is "stronger than before," Hummel told investors in a research note. He noted that Tesla has a record backlog of orders and two new gigafactories, healthy margin growth, and that Tesla has a "structural competitive advantage" in key supply chains, including in semiconductors, Vertical integration in software and battery. The analyst lowered his 2022 profit forecast by 12% to reflect the impact of the epidemic on production; but raised his profit forecast for the next three years by 40%, corresponding to EPS of $28 in 2025
4. Bas Van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank: The ECB has clearly warned that they may see a larger rate hike in September as necessary, depending on the inflation outlook at that time. So basically, the ECB will put more emphasis on the latest forecast three months from now
5. UOB Singapore: The Bank of England will raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week;
Previously, we tended to think that the Bank of England would pause rate hikes after the policy rate reached 1.00%. However, the latest decision by the country's central bank's monetary policy committee turned out to be a bit more dovish than we expected, so another 25bps rate hike is now expected in June. As for the asset sale, we may at least have to wait until closer to the actual operation to get more information, which is currently expected to start in Q4 2022 at £5bn per month
6. Billionaire investor Novogratz warns that two-thirds of cryptocurrency hedge funds will fail;
Mike Novogratz, founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd., said that two-thirds of hedge funds investing in digital currencies will fail due to the current downturn in the cryptocurrency market. "Volumes will drop, hedge funds will be forced to restructure, there are about 1,900 cryptocurrency hedge funds in the market. I'm guessing two-thirds will go bankrupt." He pointed out that the financial market's reaction to the Fed's withdrawal of stimulus is a result of the past The reason for the six-month plunge in cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% from its record highs hit in November. Novogratz also blamed broader macroeconomic factors for the collapse of the Terra blockchain last month, rather than flaws in the project itself
7. Guotai Junan Futures: ICE lowered the margin ratio and accelerated the rise;
The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) lowered the margin of Brent crude oil futures by 10.3%, easing the tight liquidity problem on the disk after ICE's substantial margin reduction since the first quarter of this year, which is beneficial to the bulls who are on the upside. This is the strength of oil prices last night. The core of this may drive the short-term acceleration of crude oil in the internal and external disks. With the advent of the summer oil consumption peak in the northern hemisphere and the hopeless short-term return of Russian and Iranian crude oil, the average price of crude oil may continue to remain high this week under the continuation of the supply shortage pattern. Among them, the short-term outer disk and two oil may challenge 130 US dollars / barrel, and SC may challenge 800 yuan / barrel (weaker than the outer disk). In addition, the short-term market still maintains a wait-and-see attitude towards the inflation trend of the United States and Europe, and inflation expectations are still strong. From the perspective of the service industry PMI of overseas economies, the downward inflection point trend is still not smooth, which means that the current terminal demand for oil products is still strong, and supports the continued strength of oil prices in the short term. If inflation is still high, the cracking of refined oil products will likely remain high, and the mid-term trend of oil prices will still be easy to rise and hard to fall, and the inflation turning point is still the biggest uncertainty. In terms of the Asia-Pacific market, it is still necessary to be alert to the substantial increase in the supply of crude oil to the Asia-Pacific region while Russia's supply of crude oil to Europe is cut, and the resulting additional negative effects on SC. Recently, the volume of ESPO crude oil in India and domestic arrivals in Hong Kong is still relatively large.
8. Two departments: carry out data security management certification and standardize network data processing activities;
The State Administration for Market Regulation and the Cyberspace Administration of China issued an announcement on carrying out data security management certification work, deciding to carry out data security management certification work, encouraging network operators to regulate network data processing activities through certification methods, and strengthen network data security protection. Certification bodies engaged in data security management certification activities shall be established in accordance with the law, and carry out certification in accordance with the "Implementation Rules for Data Security Management Certification"
9. Bank of America: The ECB is expected to raise interest rates by a total of 150 basis points this year;
The ECB is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points in July and September, and is expected to raise rates by a total of 150 basis points in 2022 and stop raising rates in 2023. Under the pressure of persistent upward inflation, the ECB will turn hawkish, end its quantitative easing policy this week and make its first rate hike in July (possibly by 50bps), which is expected to support the euro, but it is still There are many factors weighing on the euro, the strength of the euro should only be temporary
10. Vale launches a $100 million venture capital fund;
Vale, one of the world's largest mining companies, has launched its corporate venture capital program, Vale Ventures. Vale said the $100 million fund will support startups around the world to create new business opportunities, develop innovative technologies and integrate them into Vale's operations. The company said it will acquire minority stakes in startups focusing on four areas: decarbonization of the mining value chain, zero-waste mining, metals for the energy transition, and the future of mining
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