A summary of institutions' views on financial markets on April 6

On April 6, institutions summarized their views on commodities, foreign exchange, economic growth prospects, and central bank policy prospects:



1.ING: Copper may retry the high point in early March;

According to foreign media, ING economists said that upside risks still dominate the copper market in the next quarter. Markets still face enormous uncertainty around the trajectory of inflation and the path of Fed policy, the war in Ukraine and the resurgence of the virus in China. A sudden increase in market volatility cannot be ruled out in the context of sparse liquidity. And forecasts that copper will average around $10,000 in the next quarter; a more bullish forecast is for copper to retest early March highs before a pullback later in the year. Perhaps the biggest downside risk facing copper prices right now is the negative spillover to financial market sentiment and the real economy from aggressive monetary tightening to curb inflation. In addition, if the outbreak in China continues for a long time, it may damage economic demand

2. CITIC Securities: European energy supply is in short supply, and chemical supply is expected to tighten;

The latest research report of CITIC Securities believes that European energy consumption is dominated by crude oil and natural gas, with high import dependence, and Russia is the main supplier. Under the influence of geopolitics, the shortage of energy supply in Europe has led to a sharp rise in local natural gas and crude oil prices, which has impacted the cost and production stability of European chemical companies. Considering that Europe is an important chemical production place in the world, there is an expectation of tightening supply of chemical products with a high proportion of European production capacity, so we are optimistic about the price elasticity of products. Key recommendations in the A-share market vitamin, polyurethane, coal chemical, light hydrocarbon cracking, soda ash, titanium dioxide and carbon black sector leaders

3. Global asset management giant Janus Henderson: Global government debt will rise by 9.5% in 2022 to a record $71.6 trillion. Government bond rates will rise 14.5% this year. Total global government bond return was -1.9% last year, the fourth drop in 35 years

4. TD Securities predicts that there will be no hawkish language in the Fed minutes;

TD Securities said the Fed will release the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting tomorrow, which is not expected to show hawkish FOMC rhetoric. In addition, attention should be paid to Fed Chairman Powell's previous hint that "further information on the quantitative tightening plan will be provided in the minutes of the meeting", which may include a reduction in the size limit in particular. The Fed is expected to formally announce quantitative tightening in May

5. The World Bank lowered its forecast for economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region to 5%;

On April 5th, local time, the World Bank announced that due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the economic growth forecast for the Asia-Pacific region in 2022 was lowered to 5% from 5.4% proposed in October last year. The World Bank also said that if the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict persists and governments fail to respond, the economic growth forecast can be lowered to a minimum of 4%

6. Bank of America predicts that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict may rewrite the historical law of dollar weakness at the beginning of the Fed's tightening;

Bank of America strategists led by Ben Randol believe that while the start of a tightening cycle by the Fed has historically been accompanied by a pullback in the U.S. dollar, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact on energy prices and investor safe-haven demand could mean the U.S. dollar can hold its own this time around. change this historical trend. The U.S. dollar index rose to a one-week high on Tuesday, even as the greenback fell after Fed Governor Brainard affirmed expectations for more rate hikes. This time around, the evolution of risk sentiment is also important given that the US is self-sufficient in energy and if the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict persists or escalates to the detriment of Europe

7. Morgan Stanley: German bund yields to reach 1.5% by year-end under pessimistic scenario;

German 10-year bond yields could climb to 1.5% if the Eurozone's Harmonized European CPI (HICP) remains around 7% by the end of 2022, according to Morgan Stanley's bearish scenario forecast. Strategists such as Eric Oynoyan said their bearish scenario assumes Brent rising to $150, propelling HICP further above 8% this summer and still around 7% by year-end. Meanwhile, growth will decelerate significantly, but extremely high inflation will force the ECB to end its asset-purchase program in June and conduct three 25bps rate hikes between September and December

8. Standard & Poor's said the euro zone's economic growth prospects are deteriorating;

S&P Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson: While the inflation outlook has deteriorated, so has the euro zone growth outlook. A recession is by no means inevitable, as the extent to which the economy is likely to suffer in the coming months will depend on the duration of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and any changes in fiscal and monetary policy in the euro area. Still, the strong growth in March is likely to be unsustainable, and the risk of economic stagnation or contraction in the second quarter is clearly greater

9. The Asian Development Bank predicts that the GDP growth rate of developing Asian economies will be 5.2% in 2022;

On April 6, local time, the Asian Development Bank released its latest economic outlook, predicting that the GDP growth rate of developing Asian economies will be 5.2% in 2022 and 5.3% in 2023. (CCTV News)

10. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America expect commodity gains to benefit Southeast Asian currencies;

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and BofA Securities believe that Southeast Asian currencies are set to outperform their North Asian counterparts as commodity prices remain high and tourist arrivals pick up. Goldman Sachs strategists such as Danny Suwanapruti said the currencies of Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia would benefit as the Korean won should underperform other currencies as tourism accounts for a larger share of these economies. Bank of America is also bullish on the Thai baht and Malaysian ringgit, while ANZ favors the Singapore dollar and Indonesian rupiah.