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Market News 【TOP1 Evening】Gold Jump Over $1870; Dollar Fell Below 90-mark; Oil hit nine-month high

【TOP1 Evening】Gold Jump Over $1870; Dollar Fell Below 90-mark; Oil hit nine-month high

Commerzbank sees gold prices rising to $2,300 in Q4 2021; Bitcoin surpassed $22,500; Asia stocks should see better 2021.

TOPONE Markets Analyst
2020-12-17
360

晚间新闻.jpg


Gold 


Gold prices rose on Thursday as progress on a U.S. fiscal stimulus deal weakened the dollar, with the metal drawing further support from a pledge by the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low until a recovery is secured.


Spot gold rose 0.65% to $1876.10 per ounce by 18:00 (GMT+8).


U.S. congressional negotiators haggled on Wednesday over the details of a $900 billion COVID-19 aid bill expected to include $600-$700 stimulus checks and extended unemployment benefits, pushing the dollar to a more than the two-year trough.


The Fed more explicitly promised to continue its bond-buying programme until there is "substantial further progress" in restoring full employment and hitting its 2% inflation target.


With the government and central banks expected to pump more liquidity into financial markets, Commerzbank expects that it is only a matter of time before prices push back above August's all-time highs. For the year, the bank sees gold prices averaging around $2,000 an ounce. Prices for the year are expected to peak above $2,300 by the fourth quarter.


Commerzbank sees higher gold through 2022, with prices averaging the following year around $2,200 an ounce.


By 18:00 (GMT+8), silver rose 1.41% to $25.620 per ounce.


Bitcoin rose to a record high on Thursday, just a day after passing the $20,000 milestone for the first time; bitcoin already rose above $22,500 on Thursday afternoon.


Forex


The dollar index sank as low as 89.97 on Thursday, breaking below 90 for the first time since April 2018.


The U.S. dollar index fell 0.32% to 89.86  by 18:00(GMT+8).


The Federal Reserve on Wednesday vowed to keep funnelling cash into financial markets until the U.S. economic recovery is secure, a promise of long-term help that fell short of some investors' hopes of an immediate move to shore up a recent pandemic-related slide.


The dollar index jerked higher after the Fed's announcement, but the respite was short-lived.


"The U.S.' long-term yield is too low to finance its current account deficit," said Minori Uchida, chief currency strategist at MUFG Bank in Tokyo.


"As long as U.S. long-term yields stay at very low levels, the dollar will be weaker," with scope to fall by as much as 10% against rivals like the euro, yen and Chinese yuan, he said.


At 18:00(GMT+8), the EUR/USD rose 0.24% to 1.22279; the GBP/USD was down 0.65% to 1.35932; the AUD/USD rose 0.78% to 0.76360; theUSD/JPY fell 0.36% to 103.073.


Crude Oil


Oil hit a nine-month high on Thursday after government data showed a fall in U.S. crude stockpiles last week, while progress towards a U.S. fiscal stimulus deal and strong Asian demand also buoyed prices.


U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $48.219 barrel, rose 0.35%, Brent was up to $51.244 a barrel, rose 0.34% by 18:00 (GMT+8).


"All the headlines have been bullish for oil prices," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York.


"U.S. stockpiles posted a larger-than-expected draw, three of India's refiners are operating almost at 100% capacity, indicating crude demand remains strong, and it seems the U.S. will continue to deliver more monetary and fiscal stimulus, sending the dollar lower and most commodities higher."


U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels in the week to Dec. 11, the Energy Information Administration said, more than analysts' expectations of a 1.9-million-barrel drop.


Also boosting oil prices, U.S. lawmakers edged closer to agreement on a $900 billion virus-relief spending package on Wednesday with top Democrats and Republicans sounding more positive than they have in months about getting something done.


The United States on Thursday also expanded its campaign to deliver Covid-19 vaccine shots into the arms of doctors and nurses on the frontlines of a pandemic that has killed more than 2,500 Americans a day.


"The last full trading week of the year has been very bullish for crude prices as energy traders focus more on the light at the end of the COVID tunnel and as Asian demand remains strong," Moya added.


Stocks


Asia-Pacific stock mixed on Thursday.


Nikkei 225 rose 49.27 points or 0.18%, close at 26,806.67.


S&P/ASX 200 rose 77.50 points or 1.16% to close at 6,756.70.


Hang Seng Index rose 218.09 or 0.82% to 26,678.38.


South Korea's Kospi fell 1.36 points or 0.049% to 2,770.43.


Taiwan capitalization-weighted stock index fell 45.53 points, or 0.32%, at 14,258.93. 


Stronger growth and a low interest rate environment will continue to benefit Asia stocks, especially those in lagging markets outside North Asia, according to BlackRock Investment Institute.


Countries that have suffered more from the pandemic, such as Indonesia and India, will have a "significantly better 2021," said Ben Powell, the organization's chief investment strategist for Asia Pacific. Once vaccines are distributed, a combined pick-up in economic activity and persistent low rates should fuel a sustainable global cyclical recovery in the next six to 12 months, he said.


Focus Tonight


22:15(GMT+8): United States Continuing Jobless Claims (05/DEC), Forecast: 5598K, Previous: 5757K;



23:30(GMT+8): BoE Broadbent Speech;

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