Is the U.S. stock boom a bubble? Analysts tell you why they are or not optimistic

Bullish sentiment is approaching the tech bubble period

Peter Boockvar, CEO of Bleakley Advisory Group, warned investors on Monday (7th) that he believes that the bullish sentiment in the stock market has reached the level of the dot-com bubble in 2000, and the risk is very high. He believes that investors who are now bullish should pause to start. He cited Citi's Panic / Euphoria model data. This indicator is not good for the stock market when it is too excited. In the past few months, the index has continued to soar.

Boockvar said: "From the data point of view, the sentiment is very bullish, which usually means that investors are very susceptible to market pullbacks." He believes that the 10-year US Treasury yield is currently below 1%. If it rises above 1%, it will be the perfect catalyst to trigger a correction in the stock market and will eliminate some bubbles and risk sentiment.

This week's CPI will show continued price pressure, especially in terms of commodities. The loose monetary policy designed by the central bank to ease the impact of the epidemic on the economy will bring inflationary effects to prices. He believes that due to the launch of the vaccine in 2021, people will put the threat of the epidemic behind, but the ensuing inflation may surprise investors.

On the other hand, Credit Suisse analyst Jonathan Golub believes that although the US stock market is usually not bad in December and January, it is not the time to enter the market now. He believes that although U.S. stocks have rushed to historical highs, they may face difficulties this month, especially the impact of the increase in new coronary pneumonia (COVID-19) cases and further lockdowns. He suggested that if there is a pile of money on hand, then put it into the market after the president's inauguration.

Golub predicts that by January, with the launch of the vaccine, the United States will be able to better control the epidemic. In addition, when the president-elect Biden officially takes office, Wall Street will have more clarity on its policies, which can lay the foundation for the next stock market. .

He predicts that by the end of 2021, the epidemic will disappear. As enough people in the United States and other regions are vaccinated, people do not need to wear masks in their daily lives.

Golub set the target price of the S&P 500 Index at the end of next year at 4050, which is equivalent to expecting that the stock market will rise by another 10% in the next year. He also believes that the Nasdaq index, which is dominated by technology stocks, will reach new highs, and the idea of turning investment into value stocks will not last.