【TOP1 Evening】Gold rebounds from five-month lows, the dollar loses some bounce as focus shifts to Fed

Gold 

Gold prices recovered from five-month lows on Tuesday as worries over spiking COVID-19 cases offset optimism around vaccine developments and nudged investors towards the precious metal.

Spot gold rose 1.01% to $1795.65 per ounce by 18:00 (GMT+8).

Some Americans could begin receiving coronavirus vaccinations before Christmas, a top government official said on Monday, helping drive Asian shares higher after a record-breaking month.

Dimming the economic outlook, however, COVID-19 cases topped 1.1 million in the United States last week, with California weighing fresh curbs such as stay-at-home orders.

Investors' focus now turns to Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee later in the day, which will offer clues on the direction of monetary policy.

Elsewhere, by 18:00 (GMT+8), Silver rose 2.32% to $23.130 per ounce,

At 18:00 (GMT+8), the bitcoin $19703.

BTIG strategists say cryptocurrency has come of age, and bitcoin should reach $50,000 by the end of 2021.

Bitcoin surged to a new record Monday, topping its 2017 high of $19,800, according to data from Coin Metrics. The volatile cryptocurrency crossed above $19,000 last week but fell back to about $17,000 at the end of the week before bouncing back over the weekend.

The strategists initiated coverage of digital assets last week and said the market for digital currencies is very different than when frenzied trading led to a "blow-off" top in 2017. Since then, it has become accepted by major investors, corporations and governments, especially China. Bitcoin also has a finite supply of about 21 million.

Forex

An under-pressure U.S. dollar handed back part of its month-end bounce on Tuesday, as investors reckoned on more monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and a gathering recovery elsewhere.

At 18:00 (GMT+8), the U.S. dollar index was down 0.34% to 91.71.

Investors are heavily short dollars as optimism about promising vaccine trials drives buying riskier currencies and higher-yielding assets outside the United States.

Even worries about rising coronavirus cases have not offered too much support to the greenback, as speculation grows that the Federal Reserve might act to support the economy through a tough winter before vaccinations can turn the tide on the pandemic.

At 18:00 (GMT+8), the EUR/USD rose 0.08% to 1.18987.

The eurozone economy needs more support from both the central bank and national governments to avoid a deeper recession, the International Monetary Fund said.

A second wave of the COVID-19 virus and the lockdowns it has brought across much of Europe means economic growth in the region is likely to deteriorate faster than expected, the fund said.

"National fiscal policies have been a critical defense against the pandemic, markedly dampening its economic and social impact by providing critical lifelines for workers and firms," the IMF said.

At 18:00 (GMT+8), the GBP/USD fell 0.64% to1.34008; the AUD/USD rose 0.41% to 0.73706; theUSD/JPY fell 0.08% to 104.207.

Britain and the European Union also warned each other on Monday that time was running out to reach a Brexit trade deal, though investors remain hopeful and have kept the pound at $1.3361 and 89.46 pence per euro.

The Reserve Bank of Australia, meanwhile, left policy settings unchanged on Tuesday, as expected.

Crude Oil

Oil prices fell on Tuesday as concerns over mounting supply returned to the fore after leading producers delayed talks on the 2021 output policy that could extend cuts as the coronavirus pandemic continues to sap fuel demand.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $45.349 barrel, rose 0.57%, Brent was up to $47.831 a barrel, rose 0.44% by 19:00 (GMT+8).

OPEC+ delayed talks on output policy for next year until Thursday, three sources told Reuters, as key players still disagreed on how much oil they should pump amid weak demand. The grouping, including the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia, and other allies, had been scheduled to hold its meeting on Tuesday after discussions of key ministers on Sunday failed to reach a consensus.

Sources said the UAE had complicated the picture by signalling it would be willing to support a rollover of supply cuts only if group members' compliance with cut commitments improved.

Stocks

Asia-Pacific stock rose on Tuesday.

Nikkei 225 rose 353.92 points or 1.34%, close at 26,787.54.

S&P/ASX 200 rose 70.70 points or 1.08% to close at 6,588.50.

South Korea's Kospi rose 42.91 points or 1.66% to 2,634.25.

Hang Seng Index rose 226.19 or 0.86% to 26,567.68.

Taiwan capitalization-weighted stock index rose 162.78 points, or 1.19%, at 13,885.67. 

As the bull market for stocks rages on and even bests pre-pandemic levels, some American households are bouncing back much more slowly than others, unearthing a pattern indicative of a K-shaped (or lopsided) economic recovery, it could take years for employment to fully recover.

The biggest driver of the K-shaped recovery taking shape is that pandemic job losses were "highly concentrated in virus-sensitive industries" like retail, leisure and hospitality–all of which disproportionately employ low-wage workers, Goldman analyst Joseph Briggs wrote in a weekend note.

Some companies have turned to technology in an effort to boost productivity in the absence of real workers, and it's working (which is bad news for American workers): Productivity is up 4% this year despite major job losses, according to Moody's Analytics, which now estimates the 22 million jobs lost this spring won't come back until early 2024.

While stimulus measures have helped keep overall disposable income afloat during the pandemic, Americans making less than $30 per hour are feeling the most economic pain.

Slowed wage growth has also been markedly worse for lower-income workers–further contributing to the disparate economic recovery, the Goldman report goes on to say.

Goldman projects a lack of new fiscal relief will cause a fourth-quarter decline in disposable income that will hit bottom 25% of earners "particularly hard" while also weighing on consumer spending this winter.

Goldman says it expects Congress to pass a small fiscal package in December that could extend the expanded unemployment insurance benefits set to expire at year's end.

Focus Tonight

22:45 (GMT+8): United States Markit Manufacturing PMI Final (NOV), Forecast: 56.7, Previous: 53.4;

23: 00(GMT+8): Fed Chair Powell Testimony;