【TOP1 Morning】Dow and S&P 500 hit new record highs after Moderna says the vaccine is 94.5% effective
The dollar may drop 20% next year on COVID-19 vaccines. Tesla to join S&P 500 in December.

Yesterday Market Review
Gold
Gold recovered from a more than 1% dip on Monday as investors weighed immediate concerns over rising coronavirus cases and bets on further economic support even as Moderna became the second drugmaker to declare effective vaccine test results.
The spot gold closed at $1888.12 per ounce, the volatility within the day is $1863.89-$1898.95.
"Vaccine is very very good news, but the problem is it's going to take quite a while to deploy it even in the developed countries," said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities.
"Vaccine or no vaccine we're going to continue to have a hard time economically well into the third quarter of next year, we're going to need massive amounts of monetary stimulus and we're very likely to get fiscal stimulus, which ultimately should help move inflation closer to target."
While markets anticipate a return to normal in the second half of 2021, that "still leaves a massive gap in some of the economies globally that needs to be filled by governments and central banks," said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.
The silver closed at $24.720, the volatility within the day is $24.179-$25.055.
Forex
The dollar treaded water Monday after Moderna Inc became the second U.S. company in a week to report positive results from its COVID-19 vaccine trial.
The U.S. dollar index closed at 92.46, the volatility within the day is 92.44 - 92.85.
The dollar is likely to begin a drop of as much as 20% in 2021 should Covid-19 vaccines become widely distributed and help to revive global trade and economic growth, according to Citigroup Inc.
"Vaccine distribution we believe will check off all of our bear market signposts, allowing the dollar to follow a similar path to that it experienced from the early to mid-2000s" when the currency started a multi-year downturn, Citigroup strategists including Calvin Tse wrote in a report Monday.
The dollar index, which has fallen about 11% from its March peak, came under additional pressure Monday following news that Moderna Inc.'s Covid-19 vaccine was effective in a clinical trial, weighing on demand for havens like the greenback, the yen and Treasuries.
The euro was steady as investors began the week in a relatively upbeat mood after strong economic data from Asia.
The euro hit a one-week high of $1.1869 and was last up 0.03% at $1.1836.
Commerzbank analysts said investor confidence that the euro region was better prepared to launch more fiscal stimulus than a divided U.S. Congress was helping.
"In particular, as the positive news about vaccine developers are providing a glimmer of hope at the end of the corona tunnel, the FX market is likely to prefer an active fiscal reaction over inactivity," said Commerzbank strategist Ulrich Leuchtmann.
"If the end of the pandemic is foreseeable, the tactic of pushing the European economies over lockdown with the help of fiscal policies makes sense again to FX traders."
Adding to investor optimism was data on Monday showing signs of economic recovery in China and Japan, the world's second and third-largest economies, as well as 15 Asia-Pacific economies on Sunday signing the China-backed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership deal.
Trade talks between Britain and the European Union resumed, although initial confidence that the two sides could make progress dissipated and the gains in the pound were short-lived.
Sterling rallied to as high as $1.3242 before settling at $1.3186, down slightly.
ING analysts said even with an extension to the talks, the time for ratification was "dangerously shrinking," with Britain's Brexit transition period concluding on Dec. 31.
Stock Market
US stocks rallied on Monday after Moderna said its experimental Covid-19 vaccine is highly effective.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 470.63 points, or 1.60%, to close at 29,950.44. The S&P 500 rose 43.29 points, or 1.21%, to end at 3,628.44 while the Nasdaq Composite rose 94.84 points or 0.80% at 11,924.13.
Shares of Moderna (MRNA) closed 9.6% higher after the company said in a statement that the first interim analysis of Phase 3 trial results showed its vaccine candidate was 94.5% effective against coronavirus.
It's another breakthrough in the fight against coronavirus that could eventually help the world's biggest economies recover from deep recessions.
&P Dow Jones Indices announced on Monday that the carmaker will be added to the benchmark index prior to trading on Monday, Dec. 21. Based on Monday's closing prices, Tesla would be one of the 10 most valuable companies in the index.
Tesla shares spiked more than 13% in extended trading on the news, as money managers with funds that track the S&P 500 will need to buy the stock for their portfolios.
Apple (AAPL-US) rose 0.87%; Facebook (FB-US) rose 0.73%; Alphabet (GOOGL-US) rose 0.100%; Amazon (AMZN-US) rose 0.072%; Microsoft (MSFT-US) rose 0.33% .
Crude Oil
Oil prices jumped 3% on Monday.
West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $41.607, volatility within the day is $40.375-$42.325. International benchmark Brent crude closed at $43.986, volatility within the day is $42.796-$44.735.
Vaccine euphoria has already been priced in heavily since last week, but a second remedy to COVID-19 shows that a large-scale vaccination programme, with sufficient amounts for the global population, is somewhat closer now," said Rystad Energy analyst Louise Dickson.
Prices were also buoyed by data showing a rebound in China and Japan, with figures showing that Chinese refineries processed record daily levels of crude in October.
OPEC+ is set to hold a ministerial committee meeting on Tuesday that could recommend changes to production quotas when all the ministers meet on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1.
Focus Today
21:30 (GMT+8):United States Retail Sales MoM (OCT), Forecast:0.5%, Previous: 1.9%;
23:45 (GMT+8): Bundesbank Balz Speech;
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