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Market News 【TOP 1 Morning】Stocks rally on Election Day, Gold gains as dollar dips in the run-up to U.S. election verdict

【TOP 1 Morning】Stocks rally on Election Day, Gold gains as dollar dips in the run-up to U.S. election verdict

Oil rises 2%, but traders brace for wild ride on U.S. Election Day.

TOPONE Markets Analyst
2020-11-04
665

早报图片.jpg


Yesterday Market Review


Gold


Gold rose on Tuesday as the dollar slipped and ambiguity regarding the declaration of U.S. presidential results prompted investors to seek the refuge of the safe-haven metal.


The spot gold closed at $1908.29 per ounce, volatility within the day is $$1886.80-$1910.45.


"The sole driver behind gold prices is the high likelihood that there is going to be chaos surrounding the U.S. elections, from the predictions of not having a president by tonight," said Jeffrey Sica, founder of Circle Squared Alternative Investments.


Despite Democrat Joe Biden's consistent lead in national polls, the contest is close in swing states, and it may be days before the result is known due to delays in ballot counting.


"We're going to break above $2,000 an ounce levels with a potential of an all-time high by the (presidential) inauguration (on Jan. 20)," Sica said, adding that gold is going to have significant momentum until the next president is decided and then it will depend on further stimulus.


Bullion also received support from a falling dollar, as investors bet on victory by Biden, who could potentially inject a larger stimulus into the virus-hit economy.


The silver closed at $24.213, volatility within the day is $23.887-$24.368.


Forex


The U.S. dollar dipped on Tuesday as traders awaited the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.


U.S. dollar closed at 93.405, volatility within the day is 93.418 - 93.718.


The dollar was down 0.6% against a basket of currencies at 93.61 after hitting a month high on Monday.


Analysts believe a Biden win would weaken the dollar as the former vice president is expected to spend big on stimulus and to take a freer approach to trade, boosting other currencies at the dollar's expense. They cautioned, however, that uncertainty was very high about the election outcome and that taking positions might prove premature.


"I'm more nervous than European markets are today," said Berenberg chief economist Holger Schmieding, warning some investors may be jumping the gun on the issue, particularly if no clear winner emerges swiftly from the polls.


The euro extended gains and rose 0.5% against the dollar, crossing the $1.17 bar, while sterling also rose slightly to just below $1.30.


Meanwhile, European stock markets were making strong gains while eurozone government yields rose and oil prices extended their rally, exposing how investors were gradually switching from a cautious mood and getting ready to bet on a clear victory for the Democratic candidate.


Among other currencies making gains against the dollar, the Aussie rose 0.15% after an initial dip, which followed the Reserve Bank of Australia, lowering its policy interest rate by 15 basis points to 0.1% and announcing a bond-buying program.


The safe-harbor yen was also slightly higher, up 0.03% at 104.69 per dollar.


Stock Market


Stocks jumped on Tuesday as investors hoped a clear winner would emerge from the U.S. presidential election and a delayed, or contested, result would be avoided.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 552.35 points, or 2.05%, to close at 27,477.40. The S&P 500 rose 57.28 points, or 1.73%, to end at 3,367.52 while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 202.96 points or 1.85% at 11,160.57.


Walgreens Boots Alliance gained more than 4% to lead the blue-chip Dow higher. Industrial and financials were the best-performing sectors in the S&P 500, gaining more than 2% each.


JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs also contributed to Dow's gains, rising 3.4% and 4.1%, respectively.


Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) rose 1.54%; Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) rose 2.03%; Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) rose 1.46%; Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) rose 1.31%; Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) rose 1.51% .


CNBC's Jim Cramer, however, advised investors to stay on their toes as the market will likely remain volatile after Election Day.


"I think that no matter who wins, you have a quick dip, and you have to buy," Cramer said.


In addition, Ant Group's world record-setting initial public offering in Shanghai and Hong Kong has been suspended.


Crude Oil


Oil prices rose over 2% on Tuesday, advancing with other financial markets on U.S. Election Day, although traders were bracing for volatility depending on the voting results and as surging coronavirus cases around the world fed worries about fuel demand.


West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $35.810, volatility within the day is $35.367-$36.736. International benchmark Brent crude closed at 37.853, volatility within the day is $37.454-$38.732.


"The oil complex is re-attaching to other risky assets as election uncertainty kicks up volatility," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois, noting "oil could easily disconnect back to the downside … once the election factor is cleared."


A weaker dollar makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies, which traders said was helping to boost crude prices.


Analysts said those oil price gains were capped by rising coronavirus cases and the threat of additional lockdowns that could depress energy demand.


Italy and Norway became the latest European countries to tighten COVID-19 restrictions.


Focus Today


17:30(GMT+8): United Kingdom Markit/CIPS Composite PMI Final (OCT), Forecast: 52.9, Previous:56.5;


23:00(GMT+8): United States ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (OCT), Forecast: 62, Previous: 63;


23:30(GMT+8): United States EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change (30/OCT), Previous:-0.422M;


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