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Market News Oil prices fall after Libya signals output to resume (with trading strategy)

Oil prices fall after Libya signals output to resume (with trading strategy)

Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar said a blockade on Libyan oil exports, which has been in place since January, would be lifted. There would be a further downside risk in oil.

Eden
2020-09-21
501

石油封面.jpg

Photo: Internet


Crude oil prices fell on Monday. At 15:30 (GMT+8), WTI crude oil futures fell 0.71% to $40.746per barrel, and Brent crude fell 0.76% to $43.055 per barrel.


Libya'sLibya's renegade military commander Khalifa Haftar has announced a conditional lifting of a months-long blockade on oilfields and ports by his forces.


Haftar, whose forces control oil-rich eastern regions, choked off Libya'sLibya's oil production and exports in January after his army suffered a number of defeats at the hands of forces loyal to the internationally-backed Government of National Accord (AGN) based in Tripoli.


Libya's oil and natural gas infrastructure

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Photo: EIA

The blockade has seen Libyan overall output plummet from over 1.2 million bpd to around 80,000 bpd.


Arabian Gulf Oil Co (AGOCO), a NOC company that had been producing around 300,000 barrels per day early last year, said it was ordering staff to start operations to prepare for a resumption in output as soon as possible.


The lifting of the ban means that at least 1.1 million barrels per day of supply pressure may return to the market, which makes bulls hesitate. Also, oil prices rose sharply last week, and some callback risks need to be guarded in the short-term.


利比亚石油生产图.png

Photo: EIA


Also limiting the oil prices were concerns emerging from a resurgence in COVID-19 cases globally that prompted major cities from Denmark to Greece to announce restrictions again, while worldwide cases crossed 30.78 million.


A tropical depression in the western part of the Gulf of Mexico could become a hurricane in the next few days, potentially threatening more oil facilities.


Trading Strategy (source: Trading Central)


Pivot: 43.30


Our preference: short positions below 43.30 with targets at 42.50 & 41.90 in extension.


Alternative scenario: above 43.30 look for further upside with 43.80 & 44.15 as targets.


Comment: the RSI advocates for further downside.


Supports and resistances:

44.15

43.80

43.30

42.78 Last

42.50

41.90

41.50


Guideline for Trading Central strategy 


Trend chart reading guideline


1. First look at the time period in the upper left corner of the chart: ·30MIN and 1H chart shows the trading suggestions for intraday ·Daily chart shows the market trend analysis in next 2-3 days


2. The blue horizontal line on the chart marks the pivot: pivot indicates the reversal of the market. When the price is above the pivot, it indicates an upward trend, when the price is below the pivot , it indicates a downward trend. When the price breaks through the pivot, the trend is reversed.


3. The red and blue thin curves in the Candlestick chart chart are technical indicators: Red line is MA20+Bollinger bands, Blue line is MA50. under the Candlestick chart chart are also the technical indicators: Blue line is RSI, Red line is 9MA;


4. The green horizontal line is the resistance level for a price increase, and is also the profit target for long orders; the red horizontal line is the support level for a price decrease, and is also the profit target for short orders.


How to use TC strategy?


1.[Pivot] is the reversal line of the market trend. When the price up the pivot line which means in Bullish, you can open a long position or Buy. on the contrary, when the price under pivot line which means in bearish. You ‘d better make short positions or Sell. 


2. [our preference] is the main trading suggestion for your reference. You can exit your trading refer to this target or close positions before it.


3. [Alternative scenario] is the plan B for your reference. 


4. [Comment] is the technical analysis of market trends and technical support for trading strategies. 


5. [Supports and resistance] Supports are levels where the price tend to find support as it falls.

Resistances are levels where the price tend to find resistance as it rises. So, exit before the trend reverse.



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