2021 Oil market trend forecast before API data outcome

As of the US close last Thursday, US WTI crude oil February futures closed down 0.53 US dollars, or 1.1%, to 47.75 US dollars per barrel, reaching a maximum of 48.94 US dollars per barrel and a lowest falling to 47.54 US dollars per barrel; Brent crude oil March futures closed It fell by 0.47 US dollars or 0.92% to 50.87 US dollars per barrel. The highest intraday touched 51.99 US dollars per barrel and the lowest fell to 50.79 US dollars per barrel.

US President Trump signed the $2.3 trillion new crown bailout bill on Sunday, enhancing market optimism and boosting energy demand in the world's largest economy. The bill caused the dollar as a safe-haven currency to fall and supported crude oil prices denominated in dollars.

Economists of OCBC Bank predicted in the annual crude oil outlook report that the price of Brent crude oil in the first and early second quarters of 2021 will fall to US$45/barrel and may rise to US$55/barrel by the end of the year.

The beginning of 2021 is likely to be a difficult period for crude oil, because OPEC+ may increase monthly production, and Libya will continue to provide crude oil to the international market. From the first quarter to the middle of the second quarter, supply may exceed demand, and the price of Lundt crude oil may be as low as $45/barrel. From the end of the second quarter, it is expected that the popularization of vaccines will increase basic demand, leading to a shortage of supply, and will increase the price of Brent crude oil to $55 per barrel before the end of the year.

Energy website Oilprice analyst Alex Kimani also said that three reasons support his bullish oil price: the new crown virus vaccine may be available in large quantities; the global economy seems to be recovering from the epidemic at a faster-than-expected rate; although OPEC+ increased production by 500,000 barrels per day from early 2021 , But it is not a fatal blow to the oil market balance.

The market focus turned to the weekly crude oil inventory report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) at 05:30 (GMT+8) on Wednesday morning. As of the week of December 18, API crude oil inventories increased by 2.7 million barrels to 497.7 million barrels, the highest since the beginning of March, and are expected to decrease by 3.25 million barrels. If the data shows a downward trend, it is expected to help oil prices rebound. In addition, investors will continue to pay close attention to geopolitical tensions, international trade relations and developments related to the coronavirus and their impact on the global market to find short-term trading opportunities for crude oil.