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Market News NZD/USD Remains On The Defensive, Hovering Just Above The Mid-0.6300s Following Conflicting Chinese Macroeconomic Data

NZD/USD Remains On The Defensive, Hovering Just Above The Mid-0.6300s Following Conflicting Chinese Macroeconomic Data

On Monday, NZD/USD remains under some selling pressure for the second consecutive day. Mixed Chinese macroeconomic data provides little meaningful impetus for the pair. Bets that the Fed will end its rate-hiking cycle in the near future in order to cap the USD and operate as a tailwind.

TOP1 Markets Analyst

2023-07-17

11727

NZD:USD.png

The NZD/USD pair begins the new week on a subdued note as it extends Friday's modest retracement decline from the 0.6410 area, or its highest level since February. Spot prices remain depressed for a second consecutive day and trade in the mid-0.6300s in response to muddled Chinese macroeconomic data.

The National Bureau of Statistics of China reported that the Chinese economy grew by 0.8% during the April-June quarter of 2023, compared to the expected increase of 0.5%. Nonetheless, this represents a significant deceleration from the 2.2% growth recorded in the first quarter. In addition, the annual growth rate of 6.3% fell short of market expectations, though it was higher than the quarterly increase of 4.5%.

Separately, China's Industrial Production increased by 4.4% in June, exceeding expectations of a 2.7% decline from the previous month's 3.5% increase. However, this was partially offset by China's Retail Sales decelerating significantly to 3.1% YoY from 12.1% in May. The data does little to alleviate concerns about an economic downturn or to boost antipodean currencies, including the New Zealand dollar.

On the other hand, the US Dollar (USD) is bolstered by the optimistic University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index released on Friday, which is expected to act as a headwind for the NZD/USD pair. In light of growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will shortly end its policy tightening cycle, a meaningful USD recovery from its lowest level since April 2022, which was reached on Friday, appears unlikely.

Before placing aggressive bearish bets and affirming that the NZD/USD pair has formed a near-term top, it is prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling. Later during the early North American session, market participants anticipate the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index from the United States to provide some impetus. In the interim, a risk-averse New Zealand Dollar (NZD) may continue to feel some pressure from a risk-averse environment.