[Market Morning] 98% Chance of a Global Recession? Gold Once Approached 1620

On Monday, spot gold expanded its decline in the U.S. market, and once fell to a low of $1,621.05, and finally closed down 1.3% at $1,622.49 per ounce; spot silver was blocked at the $19 mark and fell back, and finally closed down 2.78% at $18.34 /ounce.

Comment: Gold prices hovered near a 2-1/2-year low on Monday as U.S. Treasury yields climbed and the dollar strengthened, while concerns over rising U.S. interest rates dented the appeal of non-yielding gold.

Suggestion:  short spot gold at 1626.30 position, target point 1613.38.

The U.S. dollar index rose to a high of 114.6 in the Asian session, and then gave up some of the gains, and finally closed up 0.97% at 114.11; the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose sharply and closed at 3.933%. U.S. Treasuries extended their losses after a weak 2-year Treasury auction, with the 10-year Treasury yield hitting its highest since April 2010; the 7-year yield rose 22 basis points to 4.0837%, the highest level since 1993.

Comment: Sterling fell to a record low against the dollar on Monday as investors worried that Britain's new economic plan would hurt the country's finances, while the Bank of England said it was watching financial markets "very closely" after sharp swings in asset prices.

Suggestion: Go short GBP/USD at 1.06935 position, target at 1.03139.

In terms of crude oil, both crude oils plunged sharply in the U.S. session, with a drop of more than 3%. WTI crude oil gave up all gains and turned down in the U.S. session, and finally closed down 3.78% at US$76.31 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed. It fell 3.25% to $83.89 a barrel.

Comment: Oil prices fell $2 in choppy trade on Monday to close at a nine-month low, weighed down by a stronger dollar as market participants awaited details on new sanctions on Russia.

Suggestion: short the US crude oil at 76.329 position, the target point is 75.077。

U.S. stocks fell for five consecutive trading days, the Dow closed down 1.11%, the S&P 500 closed down 1.03%, and the Nasdaq closed down 0.6%. Bank stocks, oil and gas stocks, and airline stocks mostly closed lower.

Comment: U.S. stocks sank deeper and deeper into a bear market on Monday, with the S&P 500 and the Dow ending lower as investors worried that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive anti-inflation actions could tip the U.S. economy into a deep recession.

Suggestion: go short Nasdaq index at 11258.200 position, target point at 11104.010

Nigeria's national grid collapses for seventh time this year

On September 26, local time, Nigeria’s national grid collapsed for the seventh time since 2022, again causing nationwide power outages, while the number of grid collapses in the country in 2021 was three. While the National Transmission Corporation of Nigeria has yet to determine the cause of the accident, some insiders say the grid collapse may have been the result of maintenance on a 330-kilovolt transmission line in the country's northwestern state of Bauchi. Nigeria's power infrastructure is weak, and the power generation and transmission and transformation capabilities are seriously insufficient. While the national power grid has repeatedly collapsed, fuel prices have also skyrocketed since the end of February this year, which has had a serious impact on the country's economy and society.

Moscow Exchange Index closes below 2,000 for first time in 5 years

The Moscow Exchange index closed at 1,933.35 at the end of the main trading session on the 26th, closing below 2,000 for the first time in five years. In late trading that day, the index continued to fall, falling below 1900 points. Shares in the technology and materials sectors fell the most amid heightened tensions over Ukraine and a partial mobilization in Russia, as risk aversion intensified as capital ditched riskier assets. In addition, analysts believe that the Moscow Exchange Index may continue to fall to the 1700-1800 point range, considering external sanctions pressure and a possible increase in the tax burden on the private sector.

Italian centre-right coalition wins parliamentary majority

On September 26, local time, the Italian Ministry of the Interior announced the results of the vast majority of polling stations in the parliamentary elections. The center-right coalition of political parties, mainly composed of the Italian Brotherhood, the League and Forza Italia, won 44% and 43.8% of the votes in the Senate and the House of Representatives respectively, and won 112 and 235 seats in the Senate and House of Representatives respectively, winning the parliamentary majority. According to the election agreement of the center-right party alliance, the party leader Meloni is likely to become Italy's first female prime minister.