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Market News EUR/GBP rises from 0.8620 in advance of German Retail Sales

EUR/GBP rises from 0.8620 in advance of German Retail Sales

EUR/GBP is trading in a 40-pip range before to the German Retail Sales report. A surprising decrease in Eurozone inflation has damaged hawkish ECB bets. The attitude of British households was depressed by the 45-month peak in food inflation.

Daniel Rogers

2022-12-01

393

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The EUR/GBP pair has picked bids after dipping to approximately 0.8620 in the Asian session. Despite a fall in the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, the asset has moved in a narrow range between 0.8620 and 0.8660 for the past three trading days (HICP). A recovery move in the cross is now weak and requires further filters to become stronger.

On Wednesday, the headline Eurozone HICP was announced with a value of 10.0%, which was lower than the expected value of 10.4% and the previous value of 10.6%. Inflationary pressures slowed in the Eurozone economy as a result of a decline in energy prices following electrification measures, although food prices remain stable. The core HICP remained unchanged at 5.0% as a result of supply chain bottlenecks.

In the meantime, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers are concerned about wage increases. At a point of time, when inflationary forces will settle down higher salaries will stay, which could de-anchor long-term inflation expectations.

Commerzbank suggests that a dip in the preliminary inflation estimate for November has led to a reduction in the rate hike extent to 50 basis points (bps).

Also, an unfavorable German unemployment report is supporting a decline in an interest rate hike by the ECB in its December monetary policy meeting.

Going forward, investors will keep an eye on German Retail Sales statistics. The economic report is anticipated to increase the annual shrinkage rate to 2.8% from 0.9% previously. Also, monthly data are anticipated to decline by 0.6% versus 0.9% growth. Policymakers at the ECB will take pleasure in a drop in retail demand.

On the United Kingdom front, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported that food inflation reached a 45-year high of 12.4% in November, dampening household morale as they will be unable to balance increased food prices with lower incomes.

Helen Dickinson, chief executive officer of the British Retail Consortium, reacted to the data by stating, as reported by the Financial Times, "Winter looks increasingly dismal if price pressures persist." This may affect the Pound Sterling in the future.