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Market News 【TOP1 Evening】Gold hits one-week high; Dollar hovers near two-year low; oil stable

【TOP1 Evening】Gold hits one-week high; Dollar hovers near two-year low; oil stable

Euro rises above $1.22 for the first time in more than two years; S&P 500 could surge past 4,000 next year, representing a potential upside of more than 10%, BofA said.

TOPONE Markets Analyst
2020-12-16
299

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Gold


Gold prices rose to a one-week high on Wednesday, building on the previous session's rally on growing prospects of further U.S. stimulus, while investors awaited the Federal Reserve's policy decision.


Spot gold rose 0.61% to $1863.61 per ounce by 18:00 (GMT+8).


"The markets are just craving anything in terms of a U.S. stimulus package and news that some bipartisanship emerged last night marginally lifted inflation expectations, benefiting gold," said IG Market analyst Kyle Rodda.


U.S. congressional leaders reported substantial progress on Tuesday after two meetings of top Democrats and Republicans to end a months-long standoff on coronavirus relief.  

      

Investors are also keeping an eye on the outcome of a two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting on Wednesday. Policymakers are expected to keep the overnight interest rate near zero and signal it will stay there for years to come, a decision that analysts say will further boost risk sentiment.       

 

"The unlikely magic ingredient that would see gold prices fly would be if the Fed potentially entertains a yield curve control programme to keep risk-free rates low," Rodda said.


Elsewhere, by 18:00 (GMT+8), Silver rose 2.31% to $25.045 per ounce; bitcoin rose 0.14% to $19447.


Forex


The dollar fell on Wednesday. At 18:00 (GMT+8), the U.S. dollar index was down 0.32% to90.08.


At 18:30(GMT+8), the GBP/USD rose 0.41% to 1.35079; EUR/USD rose 0.45% to 1.22056; AUD/USD rose 0.23% to 0.75745; USD/JPY fell 0.28% to 103.350.


Strong eurozone survey figures and hopes of progress on Brexit negotiations pushed the euro above $1.22 versus the U.S. dollar on Wednesday for the first time since April 2018.


The euro has been gaining since the European Union announced a recovery fund in May, rising nearly 13% since then. Economic activity data in recent months have also boosted bets that Europe is outperforming the U.S.


Those expectations got a further boost with manufacturing survey data from Germany and France, indicating that Europe's biggest economies may be recovering quickly. 


Crude Oil


The oil prices were stable on Wednesday.


U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $47.874 barrel, rose 0.29%, Brent was up to $50.816 a barrel, rose 0.26% by 18:00 (GMT+8).


Crude inventories swelled by 2 million barrels in the week to Dec. 11 to about 495 million barrels, according to industry group API.


The rollout of vaccines this month to combat the coronavirus pandemic will not quickly reverse the shattering blow to global oil demand, International Energy Agency (IEA) warned on Tuesday.


Still, progress on vaccine rollouts continued on Tuesday after Moderna Inc's COVID-19 vaccine appeared set for U.S. regulatory authorisation this week.


Stocks


Asia-Pacific stock closed up on Wednesday.


Nikkei 225 rose 69.56 points or 0.26%, close at 26,757.40.


S&P/ASX 200 rose 47.90 points or 0.72% to close at 6,679.20


Hang Seng Index rose 253.00 or 0.97% to 26,460.29.


South Korea's KOSPI rose 14.97 points or 0.54% to 2,771.79.


Taiwan capitalization-weighted stock index rose 235.94 points, or 1.68%, at 14,304.46.


Looking to 2021, the evidence remains bullish for stocks to continue their long-term trend upward, according to a technical analyst note from Bank of America. 


BofA outlined two critical levels stock market investors should have their eye on next year.


First, critical support in the S&P 500 of 3,200. A move to that level from Monday's close would represent downside potential of 12%. A brief correction in stocks in the fall tested the 3,200 range, which served as a bullish retest of the breakout in stocks over the summer.


The second factor is upside potential. Specifically, BofA has its eyes on 4,000 in the S&P 500, which would represent potential upside of 10% from Monday's close. 


Supporting that potential move higher includes positive seasonality data and a bullish cup-and-handle breakout.


"Historical data suggests that the year after a year with a 10%+ drawdown tends to have stronger returns in the following January, 1Q and for the entire year," Bank of America said. This seasonality trend could continue in 2021 given the 35% sell-off in stocks in 2020.


And based on presidential cycles, Joe Biden stands to preside over a strong showing for stocks in his first year as president, according to the note.


While BofA admits it may take until 2022 until this price objective is reached, they did not rule out the possibility of the S&P crossing 4,000 and moving towards that level in 2021. 


Focus Tonight:


22:45(GMT+8): United States Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash (DEC), Forecast:55.7, Previous: 56.7;


23:30(GMT+8): United States EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change (11/DEC), Previous:-1.364M;


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